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Mesoscale Discussion 239
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0239
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0524 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 082224Z - 090030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
   EVENING. HOWEVER...WW NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT SATELLITE/RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY DEPICT A DECAYING
   MCS PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS CNTRL VA AS OF 22Z. ON THE SRN EDGE OF
   THIS COMPLEX...A CLUSTER OF STRONG TSTMS CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE
   SEWD. ADDITIONALLY...MORE ISOLATED CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED FARTHER S
   /AROUND HALIFAX CO/. THIS CONVECTION IS PRESENT IN A REGIME OF
   BETTER SFC HEATING TO THE SW OF A BACKDOOR FRONT...AND ALONG/TO THE
   SOUTHEAST OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS. FCST SOUNDINGS AND
   REGIONAL VWP DATA INDICATE MODEST BULK SHEAR...GENERALLY AROUND
   25-30 KT. ADDITIONALLY...THIS AREA IS TO THE EAST OF A STEEPER
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME. AS SUCH...THE LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL BE
   QUITE MARGINAL. HOWEVER...STRONG SFC HEATING AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY UPSCALE GROWTH / COLD POOL
   ORGANIZATION OCCURS. NONETHELESS...CONSISERING THE MARGINAL
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND MODEST WIND PROFILE...A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   ..PICCA/THOMPSON.. 04/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37147897 37087903 36997933 36907989 36768019 36097990
               35697879 36037852 36627887 37147897 

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Page last modified: April 09, 2015
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