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Mesoscale Discussion 239
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0239
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0206 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

   Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...Northwest Missouri...Far Southeast
   Nebraska...Southern Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 131906Z - 132130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to develop across northeast
   Kansas, northwest Missouri and southern Iowa over the next couple of
   hours. Large hail and wind damage will be the initial threat but a
   tornado threat is expected to eventually develop. Weather watch
   issuance will likely be needed across the region this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 991 mb low over far
   southeast Nebraska with a cold front extending south-southwestward
   from the low into northeast and central Kansas. A dryline begins
   near the front in eastern Kansas and extends southward into northern
   Oklahoma. Thunderstorms are developing along the dryline in
   southeast Kansas with other cells initiating to the north of the low
   in the Omaha area. This convection is expected to increase in
   coverage as the cap weakens over the next hour or so. The storms
   should reach northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa by mid afternoon.

   Ahead of the storms, a corridor of low-level moisture is analyzed
   from far southeast Kansas northward into far northwest Missouri
   where surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 60s F. The RAP is
   showing MLCAPE values from eastern Kansas into far southwest Iowa in
   the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, forecast soundings
   steadily increase deep-layer shear along the instability corridor
   through late this afternoon. 0-6 km shear should reach the 40 to 50
   kt range which will be favorable for supercell development. The
   instability, shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will be support
   large hail formation with the stronger updrafts. Damaging wind gusts
   will also be likely as storm organize. As deep-layer shear and
   low-level shear increase later this afternoon, a tornado threat will
   also likely develop.

   ..Broyles/Hart.. 04/13/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37869651 38009477 39089392 40369332 41209342 41469430
               41549544 41159619 40559642 39759647 38359705 37869651 

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Page last modified: April 13, 2018
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