Mesoscale Discussion 0239
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0509 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of east-central Missouri into
   central/southern Illinois

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 43...

   Valid 142209Z - 142345Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 43 continues.

   SUMMARY...The greatest risk for very large hail and tornadoes in the
   next 1-2 hours will be in southern Illinois. Intense storms near the
   cold front will eventually be overtaken by the front and undergo a
   weakening trend.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercell storms continues east/southeast
   of the St. Louis area. A secondary cluster is also ongoing near the
   cold front in west-central/central Illinois. An area of locally
   backed surface winds is evident in surface observations ahead of the
   more southern cluster of supercells. Despite only modest low-level
   shear, this area will pose the greatest risk for tornadoes in the
   next hour or two. These storms will also pose a risk of 2-3 inch
   hail.

   Farther north near the cold front, the threat for tornadoes should
   be less. Large/very-large hail will continue to be a threat given
   favorable deep-layer shear and storm mode. With the cold front also
   beginning to make southward progress, the duration of the severe
   threat may be more short-lived farther north. Buoyancy will decrease
   behind the front and is not expected to support strong/severe
   elevated storms.

   ..Wendt.. 03/14/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38029022 38279047 39079072 39379078 39829006 40228821
               39918770 38628794 38108902 38029022