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Mesoscale Discussion 239
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0239
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0605 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 48...

   VALID 182305Z - 190000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 48
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE AS THEY
   PROPAGATE SOUTH ACROSS WW48.  HAIL REMAINS THE GREATEST RISK.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE ALONG
   SURGING COLD FRONT THAT HAS PROGRESSED TO THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. 
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ADEQUATE FOR MAINTENANCE OF SEVERE MULTI-CELL
   UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
   EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE SWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW48 OVER THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS WHERE LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
   STRONG UPDRAFTS.

   FARTHER WEST...CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED OFF THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO...WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.  RADAR
   DATA SUGGESTS A WELL-DEFINED BOW-TYPE STRUCTURE HAS EVOLVED FROM
   THIS LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS ROUGHLY 75MI SSW OF DRT.  THIS
   ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE SEWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
   RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING ALONG A STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS WITH
   MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 4000 J/KG.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MONITORED
   CLOSELY.

   ..DARROW.. 03/18/2016


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   27960014 29700096 31409748 29649667 27960014 

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