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Mesoscale Discussion 241
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0241
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0334 PM CDT TUE APR 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN NORTH TX/SOUTHERN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 012034Z - 012230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...MONITORING FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED INCREASING
   SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS
   THE WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TX INTO SOUTHERN OK. INCREASING SIGNS OF
   DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD PROMPT A WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...TIED TO A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX/TX SOUTH
   PLAINS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER ANGLES SOUTHWEST-NORTHEASTWARD
   ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND WESTERN PART OF NORTH TX INTO
   SOUTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL OK. NEAR THE BOUNDARY...SOME DEEPENING OF THE
   CU FIELD HAS BEEN NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE GENERAL
   VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE
   ABILENE/SAN ANGELO AREAS UNDER OVERSPREADING CIRRUS...AS OF
   MID-AFTERNOON.

   WHILE OVERALL CONVERGENCE/FORCING FOR ASCENT IS MODEST...THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO STEADILY DESTABILIZE...WITH INCREASINGLY
   NEGLIGIBLE CINH ESPECIALLY WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE EXCEEDED
   APPROX 83F. WHILE THE LIKELIHOOD/EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN EVEN IN THE SHORT-TERM...INCREASING
   CONFIDENCE/IMMINENT SIGNS OF SUCH DEVELOPMENT WOULD LIKELY PROMPT A
   WATCH ISSUANCE. GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY...WINDS
   VEERING/STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT AND 40+ KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE
   HAIL.

   ..GUYER/HART.. 04/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   33110036 34049933 34719740 34259671 33479729 32869815
               32129945 32350031 33110036 

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Page last modified: April 01, 2014
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