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Mesoscale Discussion 241
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0241
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0728 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA...SRN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 190028Z - 190200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG A
   CORRIDOR FROM SRN LA INTO SRN MS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS THE
   PRIMARY CONCERN.  WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED ACROSS
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS
   POSSIBLY PRODUCING GREATER THAN ONE INCH HAIL IN A FEW LOCATIONS. 
   00Z SOUNDING FROM LCH EXHIBITS WEAK SHEAR IN THE LOWEST FEW KM WITH
   SUFFICIENT SFC-6KM SHEAR FOR MAINTENANCE OF ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL
   UPDRAFTS.  HOWEVER...RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST NUMEROUS STORM MERGERS AND
   SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY
   SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUING...WITH GRADUAL SWD SHIFT TO
   CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  LIX SOUNDING IS SUBSTANTIALLY
   LESS BUOYANT THAN LCH AND FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS THE MORE ROBUST
   ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD ACROSS GENERATING ZONE OVER LCH CWA.  EVEN
   SO...ORGANIZED SEVERE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND WW DOES NOT APPEAR
   WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

   ..DARROW/GOSS.. 03/19/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   30969331 31619097 31408904 30208892 29649018 29459203
               29779339 30969331 

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Page last modified: March 19, 2016
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