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Mesoscale Discussion 242
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0242
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0640 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NW AND W CENTRAL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 082340Z - 090045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS A
   SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK EJECTS ENEWD OVER W TX THIS EVENING AND
   INTERACTS WITH THE SLOWLY RETREATING DRYLINE.  ISOLATED HAIL/WIND
   WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WHAT SHOULD BECOME A BAND OF STORMS...AND A
   SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...SOME HEIGHT FALLS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ARE
   OVERSPREADING W TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EJECTING MID-UPPER JET
   STREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM ALOFT.  THE DRYLINE HAS RETREATED A
   BIT TO THE W AND IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE ZONE OF MIDLEVEL
   ASCENT.  THUS...INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS
   EVENING IN A BAND FROM NW INTO W CENTRAL TX...AND THE CONVECTION
   WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.  THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT
   IS SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED AND BUOYANT /MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG AND
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 50 KT/ TO SUPPORT A RISK OF
   ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS.  THE DURATION AND ERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE RISK IS
   COMPLICATED BY SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DUE TO COOLER
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS.  STILL...A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.

   ..THOMPSON.. 04/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32700042 31370142 31380194 31970212 32970175 33890100
               34160043 34199979 33949948 33359986 32700042 

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Page last modified: April 09, 2015
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