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Mesoscale Discussion 242
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0242
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0734 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 190034Z - 190230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
   THE N AND FROM THE W ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP S TX...WITH A HAIL AND
   WIND THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD INTO THE SAN
   ANTONIO VICINITY WITH THE STRONGER CORES CONTAINING HAIL AND LOCALLY
   STRONG WINDS. OTHER CELLS WERE DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF...AND ALONG
   THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHERE INSTABILITY IS QUITE STRONG. 

   00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY AREA-WIDE ALONG WITH STEEP
   LAPSE RATES ALOFT WHICH ARE SUPPORTING STRONG UPDRAFTS. DESPITE WEAK
   SHEAR PROFILES IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...INSTABILITY ALONE HAS BEEN
   ENOUGH TO ENCOURAGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS. HOWEVER...THE
   LACK OF SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE
   THREAT...BUT INSTEAD ISOLATED REPORTS.

   WHILE A LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT REMAINS MAINLY WHERE TEMPERATURES
   ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...TOO MUCH CAPPING LIKELY EXISTS FARTHER E
   NEAR THE COAST PER 00Z SOUNDINGS WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE UPPER
   70S F.

   ..JEWELL/GOSS.. 03/19/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

   LAT...LON   26299908 27359953 28060017 28659941 28839830 28939749
               28709714 28229738 27759775 27129803 26439802 25979810
               26299908 

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Page last modified: March 19, 2016
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