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Mesoscale Discussion 242
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0242
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0443 PM CDT TUE APR 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL CA COAST EWD TO THE CENTRAL CA VALLEY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 012143Z - 020015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH THIS POTENTIAL CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. WHILE
   CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY
   UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...COLD CONDITIONS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW
   /CORE H5 TEMPERATURES OF -30C TO -25C/ ARE ADVANCING SEWD TOWARD THE
   NRN/CNTRL CA COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD AREAS OF STEEP
   0-3-KM LAPSE RATES INLAND -- AIDED BY INSOLATION PER VIS IMAGERY.
   WITH INCREASING DCVA/ASCENT PRECEDING THIS CYCLONE ENCOURAGING
   ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION...AND WITH TERRAIN-DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS
   BOLSTERING LOW-LEVEL ASCENT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO
   THE EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY 20-30 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED
   BY DAX/MUX VWP DATA...DEEP SHEAR WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT
   FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CONVECTION. REGARDLESS...SOME DIRECTIONAL
   SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS -- ACCENTUATED IN N/S-ORIENTED VALLEYS BY
   FLOW CHANNELING -- COULD SUPPORT A FEW MARGINAL SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND DMGG
   WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO...CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
   MOST INTENSE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SUCH THREAT IS
   REDUCED BY RELATIVELY COOL SFC TEMPERATURES REDUCING
   BUOYANCY...ALONG WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...STO...MTR...

   LAT...LON   37832254 38412226 39152253 39462201 38642079 37151950
               35601927 34992053 36042162 36792202 37832254 

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Page last modified: April 02, 2014
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