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Mesoscale Discussion 243
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0243
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0704 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MO...SRN IL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 37...

   VALID 090004Z - 090200Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 37 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
   POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR A TORNADO OR TWO.

   DISCUSSION...CURRENT WSR-88D MOSAIC DISPLAYS A COUPLE OF
   MULTI-CELLULAR/MARGINALLY SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES ACROSS SERN MO.
   THESE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE ROOTED NEAR/ALONG A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. WHILE THE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD
   COVER DUE TO PREVIOUS CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...MLCAPE
   VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG ARE STILL PRESENT. ADDITIONALLY...THE
   WIND PROFILE IS CHARACTERIZED BY A RELATIVE LACK OF VEERING IN THE
   LOW LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR IS PRESENT TO PROVIDE EFFECTIVE
   SRH VALUES AROUND 100-150 M2/S2. MOREOVER...REGIONAL VWPS SUGGEST
   AROUND 40-45 KTS OF BULK SHEAR IS AVAILABLE FOR UPDRAFT
   ORGANIZATION. THEREFORE...THE THREAT FOR A FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS
   AND/OR A TORNADO CONTINUES ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW 37...ESPECIALLY
   WITH ANY CELLS ROOTED ALONG THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AN
   INCREASE OF CINH THROUGH THE EVENING WILL LIKELY PROMOTE A DOWNWARD
   TREND IN ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL THOUGH.

   ..PICCA.. 04/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38018878 38028813 37848797 37528820 37298861 37238978
               37349074 37549112 37919117 38018878 

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Page last modified: April 09, 2015
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