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Mesoscale Discussion 244
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0244
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0818 PM CDT TUE APR 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH TX...SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 45...

   VALID 020118Z - 020245Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 45
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE PRIMARY SHORT-TERM SVR POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN CONFINED
   TO A SMALL PART OF N TX. CONVECTION ELSEWHERE SHOULD REMAIN VERY
   ISOLATED...AT MOST...BUT SOME UPTICK IN ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD
   OCCUR NORTH OF THE RED RIVER LATER THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...MID-EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK FRONTAL
   MESO-LOW NE OF WICHITA FALLS AT THE FORMER LOCATION OF A TRIPLE
   POINT. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS MESO-LOW HAS SHUNTED THE BOUNDARY
   S AS A COLD FRONT INTO WRN NORTH TX...WHICH EXTENDS NWWD INTO THE TX
   S PLAINS AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY...WHILE THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES
   ADVANCING NWD AS A WARM FRONT E OF THE MESO-LOW. CONVERGENCE
   CONTINUES TO DECREASE ALONG A RETREATING DRYLINE ANALYZED FROM PARTS
   OF THE TX BIG COUNTRY TO THE TX BIG BEND. AS SUCH...CONVECTION THAT
   FORMED ALONG A RELATED SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT DURING MAXIMUM DIURNAL
   HEATING WILL LIKELY POSE THE PRIMARY SVR POTENTIAL WHILE NOCTURNAL
   MLCINH GROWS. AS SUCH...THE SVR POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
   RELATED TO A DOMINANT SUPERCELL STORM ADVANCING FROM THROCKMORTON
   INTO YOUNG COUNTY...PERHAPS EVENTUALLY INTO JACK COUNTY. THIS STORM
   COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT HAIL...THOUGH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AMIDST A
   STRONG CONVECTIVE COLD POOL SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL.
   ALSO...AN ISOLATED CELL TO ITS WEST IN NRN THROCKMORTON COUNTY COULD
   YIELD SVR HAIL.

   ELSEWHERE...WEAK ASCENT WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE INITIATION OF DEEP
   CONVECTION AS NOCTURNAL STABILITY INCREASES. LATER THIS EVENING...A
   STRENGTHENING LLJ STREAM AIDED BY NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING COULD SUPPORT
   SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT N OF THE RED RIVER. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS
   UNCERTAIN...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR
   SAMPLED BY THE 00Z OUN RAOB SUGGEST A CONDITIONAL SVR HAIL POTENTIAL
   WITH SUCH ACTIVITY.

   ..COHEN.. 04/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   32970011 35309846 35319614 32959787 32970011 

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Page last modified: April 02, 2014
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