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Mesoscale Discussion 244
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0244
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0745 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN THROUGH CNTRL OK INTO SCNTRL AND SERN KS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 36...

   VALID 090045Z - 090215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 36 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
   VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST INTO MID
   EVENING. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE FROM WRN OK INTO
   SCNTRL KS WITH GREATEST TORNADO THREAT FROM NWRN/NCNTRL OK INTO
   SCNTRL KS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT OVER CNTRL THROUGH ERN OK APPEARS
   SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING HIGH BASED STORMS CONTINUE
   DEVELOPING FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH WRN OK WITHIN ZONE OF
   DEEP MIXING IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE THAT HAS BEGUN TO RETREAT WWD. A
   LONE SUPERCELL STORM PERSISTS OVER SCNTRL KS ALONG SW-NE ORIENTED
   WARM FRONT. PRIMARY ZONE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY
   REMAIN IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE AND NEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO
   SCNTRL-ECNTRL KS. EVENING RAOB DATA FROM NORMAN OK SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINS IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER
   WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. SO TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR INITIAL
   HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER WRN OK TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EWD
   INTO THE MOIST AXIS WHERE THE CAPPING INVERSION IS MORE PRONOUNCED.
   DESPITE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE LLJ TONIGHT /E.G. IN EXCESS OF
   50 KT/ STORMS MAY STRUGGLE AS THEY MOVE EWD TOWARD CNTRL OK WITH
   MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY EXPECTED FROM NWRN OK INTO SRN KS ALONG
   PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARIES.

   ..DIAL.. 04/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   36049610 34269990 36069994 38449769 38159579 36049610 

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Page last modified: April 09, 2015
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