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Mesoscale Discussion 244
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0244
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1234 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 49...

   VALID 190534Z - 190700Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 49
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...FAST-MOVING BOW WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS /56-KT WIND GUST AT ALICE TX AT 0502Z/ HAS ACCELERATED SINCE
   0430Z...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTH TX COAST BY 06Z. 
   STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN LIKELY AS THIS BOW MOVES THROUGH
   CORPUS CHRISTI AND KINGSVILLE BETWEEN NOW AND 0545Z.

   LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS
   LOCATED ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

   DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED FAST-MOVING
   BOW ECHO /AT 46-50 KT TOWARD THE EAST/.  GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
   STORM STRUCTURE WITH A REAR-INFLOW JET AND RESIDUAL MODERATE
   INSTABILITY WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT...DAMAGING WINDS
   ARE EXPECTED AS THE MAIN THREAT AS THIS BOW MOVES TOWARD THE COAST
   AND OFFSHORE BY 06Z.

   MEANWHILE...FARTHER SOUTH INTO STARR COUNTY AND ACROSS THE
   INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO MEXICO...A SUPERCELL ON THE TX SIDE AND
   MULTICELL STORM STRUCTURES IN MEXICO SHOULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
   STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE.

   ..PETERS.. 03/19/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

   LAT...LON   26719923 27169849 27359824 27999806 28169771 28079722
               27689667 27039694 26609686 26369719 26109768 26069811
               26229876 26459916 26719923 

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Page last modified: March 19, 2016
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