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Mesoscale Discussion 246
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0246
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1229 PM CDT THU APR 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...SRN/ERN IA...NWRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 091729Z - 091900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 19Z FROM NORTHERN
   MO INTO NWRN IL.

   DISCUSSION...INTENSE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS IA INTO SRN WI/NRN IL LATER THIS EVENING. 
   THIS SHOULD ENCOURAGE/FOCUS ASCENT AHEAD OF DEEPENING SFC LOW AS IT
   TRACKS FROM NWRN MO...INTO SERN IA BY 21Z.  LATEST VIS IMAGERY
   DEPICTS DEEPENING THERMALS ALONG N-S WIND SHIFT OVER IA/MO AND THIS
   IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM NORTH OF MCI TO NEAR
   LWD.  AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM THERE IS INCREASING
   CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL DEEPEN AND TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP. 
   STRONG SHEAR WILL LEAD TO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EARLY IN THE
   CONVECTIVE CYCLE.  FORECAST STORM MOTIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
   CONVECTION TO UTILIZE SHEAR ALONG E-W BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS IA/NRN
   IL AND TORNADOES MAY BE NOTED WITH THE MOST INTENSE STRUCTURES.  

   TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NRN IL LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON AND THIS THREAT WILL BE ADDRESSED WITHIN A FEW HOURS.

   ..DARROW/GRAMS.. 04/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   41619297 42369110 42628961 42288905 41718917 41188969
               40729063 39689248 40069391 41619297 

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Page last modified: April 09, 2015
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