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Mesoscale Discussion 246
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0246
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1133 PM CDT TUE APR 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...WRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 020433Z - 020700Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL MAY INCREASE
   INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL VWP DATA INDICATE 1.5-KM-AGL SLYS/SWLYS
   INCREASING TO 30-40 KT FROM OK INTO KS AND MO AS A LLJ STRENGTHENS
   AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER NOCTURNALLY DECOUPLES. THIS WILL ACCELERATE
   ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION BENEATH H7-H5 LAPSE
   RATES AROUND 7-8 C/KM PER REGIONAL 00Z RAOBS. INCREASING ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT WILL ASSIST IN PARCELS REACHING THEIR LFCS N OF THE OK/KS
   BORDER AND EWD INTO WRN MO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIAL
   ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING IS ALREADY NOTED FROM
   SERN KS TO W-CNTRL MO...AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
   WITH TIME. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS FARTHER W ACROSS KS...AS LOW-LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTURE
   INCREASE INVOF AN H85 FRONTAL ZONE. WITH MID-LEVEL WLYS AROUND 40-60
   KT PER VWP DATA...SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE SUFFICIENT
   FOR SUSTAINED/ROTATING ELEVATED STORMS WITH SVR HAIL POSSIBLE GIVEN
   MUCAPE AROUND 500-1500 J/KG. WEAK DEEP ASCENT...HOWEVER...MAY LIMIT
   THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SUCH ACTIVITY.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37199669 38059805 39169787 39739596 39289300 37699268
               37159376 37199669 

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Page last modified: April 02, 2014
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