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Mesoscale Discussion 246
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0246
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0937 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE WES-CENTRAL FL COAST

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 191437Z - 191630Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO
   WILL EXIST AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ONSHORE IN THE
   1530Z-1630Z /1130 AM-1230 PM EDT/ TIME FRAME. THE OVERALL RISK IS
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH EMBEDDED BOWING
   SEGMENTS...CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD AT 40 KTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
   GULF OF MEXICO. EXTRAPOLATION PLACES THE LINE ACROSS THE COASTAL
   WATERS AND INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA IN THE 1500Z-1630Z
   TIME FRAME. LATEST RADAR TRENDS FROM KTBW REVEAL TRANSIENT BOWING
   SEGMENTS WITH THE LINE AND A REAR-INFLOW JET WITH 50-55 KT WINDS
   SAMPLED AT 7000 TO 8000 FT AGL. 

   AS THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES INLAND...COOLER SHELF WATERS AND
   MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A
   DECREASE IN OVERALL LINE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY WITH
   EASTWARD/INLAND EXTENT. PROSPECTS FOR SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION IN
   ADVANCE OF THE LINE APPEAR MODEST AS LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
   INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL FL. NEVERTHELESS...THE
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE GUST AND POSSIBLY A
   BRIEF QLCS TORNADO NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 1730Z.

   A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE
   OF THE THREAT.

   ..BUNTING/KERR.. 03/19/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

   LAT...LON   28018315 28178262 28198223 28058188 27538163 26788146
               26398177 26348202 26528232 26708260 27398304 28018315 

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Page last modified: March 19, 2016
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