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Mesoscale Discussion 247
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0247
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1150 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 191650Z - 191845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL FL
   ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING EAST POSING A RISK FOR
   DAMAGING GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH BY 18Z.

   DISCUSSION...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
   MOVED ONSHORE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WAS
   LOCATED BETWEEN KSRQ AND KVNC AT 1645Z. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
   PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAVE
   RESULTED IN AN EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KMLB SOUTHWEST TO KSRQ.
   SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...HIGHER THETA-E AIR HAS ADVECTED NORTH ON
   MODESTLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH MLCAPE VALUES AT 16Z
   AVERAGING NEAR 1000 J/KG. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50 KTS...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR STORM
   ORGANIZATION. 

   AS THE LINE OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
   ADVANCE EAST THIS AFTERNOON THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING
   GUSTS AND A BRIEF QLCS-ASSOCIATED TORNADO. FARTHER EAST MORE
   ISOLATED STORMS OR SMALL CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP MID-LEVEL ROTATION
   WITH A CONCURRENT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL.

   CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO
   18Z.

   ..BUNTING/KERR.. 03/19/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   27108249 27298240 27638183 27738133 27718103 27708043
               27288004 26887996 26498016 26298112 26388208 26558247
               26868257 27108249 

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Page last modified: March 19, 2016
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