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Mesoscale Discussion 247
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0247
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0917 AM CDT WED APR 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MO/SOUTHERN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 021417Z - 021545Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL/SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE
   THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING FROM EASTERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL.

   DISCUSSION...NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT...PERSISTENT ELEVATED
   STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MO AT
   MID-MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST CORES EXTENDING ALONG TO AROUND
   40-50 MILES SOUTH OF I-70. A 40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND
   ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUES TO FEED A RELATIVELY
   MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THE REGION...WITH THE 12Z OBSERVED
   SOUNDING FROM SPRINGFIELD MO SAMPLING A 7 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE
   AND 2000+ J/KG MUCAPE. CONVECTIVE MODE/TENDENCY TOWARD CLUSTERING
   MAY GRADUALLY LEAD TO A DIMINISHING HAIL RISK OVER TIME...BUT
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE MEAN TIME.
   OTHERWISE...A STABLE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER WILL TEND TO HINDER SEVERE
   CALIBER WIND GUSTS EVEN AS SOME LINEAR/BOWING SEGMENTS ORGANIZE.

   ..GUYER/HART.. 04/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   38349241 39189157 39278874 38378798 37258898 38029193
               38349241 

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Page last modified: April 02, 2014
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