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Mesoscale Discussion 248
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0248
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0219 PM CDT WED APR 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/WESTERN OK AND SOUTHEAST KS/FAR SOUTHWEST
   MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 021919Z - 022115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...MONITORING DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR AN ANTICIPATED
   DEVELOPMENT/INCREASE IN SEVERE TSTMS THROUGH LATE
   AFTERNOON...INCLUDING PARTS OF NORTHERN/WESTERN OK AND SOUTHEAST KS.
   MORE CERTAIN/IMMINENT SIGNS OF SURFACE-BASED DEEP CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT WILL PROMPT A WATCH ISSUANCE /LIKELY BEFORE 21Z/ FOR
   RISKS FOR LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF 19Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPES ROUGHLY W/SW TO
   E/NE ACROSS NORTHERN OK...WITH PART OF THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTING
   NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHEAST KS. AN
   ADJACENT DRY LINE EXTENDS SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS FAR WESTERN OK.
   OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...A CU FIELD HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF DEEPENING
   NEAR THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK
   AND FAR SOUTHEAST KS. 

   ESPECIALLY WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE LOWER
   80S F...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
   STEADILY ABATE...WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF
   2000-3500 J/KG IN THE PRESENCE OF LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE
   SCENARIO OF WEAKENING INHIBITION IS WELL SUPPORTED BY MODIFICATIONS
   TO A RECENT 18Z LAMONT OK OBSERVED SOUNDING. 

   WHILE LARGE-SCALE INFLUENCES ARE SUBTLE...ADDITIONAL
   HEATING/SUFFICIENT MASS CONVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
   ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED TSTMS BY LATE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AIDED BY 40-55 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
   WINDS AND AFOREMENTIONED AMPLE INSTABILITY...VEERING/STRENGTHENING
   WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
   HAIL. A TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST AS WELL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
   NORTHERN OK/EXTREME SOUTHERN KS IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE TRIPLE
   POINT/WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE TOWARD
   EARLY EVENING GIVEN AN EXPECTED STRENGTHENING/BACKING OF 1-2 KM AGL
   WINDS.

   ..GUYER/HART.. 04/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35589930 36169915 36939823 37769599 37379416 36469454
               36359615 35449846 35589930 

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Page last modified: April 02, 2014
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