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Mesoscale Discussion 248
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0248
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0132 PM CDT THU APR 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SW/W-CNTRL MO...EXTREME NE OK...EXTREME NW AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 091832Z - 092030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT
   PUSHES THROUGH SW/W-CNTRL MO. ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BE SUPPORTIVE
   OF SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY
   THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT 18Z SOUNDING FROM SGF REVEALS EML CAPPING
   REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING COLD
   FRONT COUPLED WITH CONTINUED INSOLATION WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THE CAP
   ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   ONCE THIS OCCURS...THE ENVIRONMENT...CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE AROUND
   1500-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM 35 TO 40 KTS...WILL BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG MULTICELLS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW SUPERCELLS.
   STORM MODE WILL QUICKLY GO LINEAR WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT OF
   DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS LINEAR MODE COMBINED WITH MOSTLY
   VEERED SURFACE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO TEMPER THE TORNADO THREAT.  

   THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN STORM STRENGTH AND/OR
   COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO MERIT A WW BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE
   AREA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

   ..MOSIER/GRAMS.. 04/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...

   LAT...LON   37809444 38329416 38549345 38199257 36649377 36319456
               36809498 37809444 

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Page last modified: April 09, 2015
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