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Mesoscale Discussion 249
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0249
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0320 PM CDT WED APR 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN AR/NORTHERN LA/MO BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHERN
   MS/WESTERN TN/WESTERN KY/SOUTHERN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 022020Z - 022245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP/INCREASE AND BECOME SURFACE-BASED
   ANYWHERE WITHIN A BROAD CORRIDOR FROM EASTERN AR/NORTHERN LA TO
   NORTHERN MS...WESTERN PORTIONS OF TN/KY...AND SOUTHERN IL. WHILE THE
   DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED PENDING
   INCREASING SIGNS/CONFIDENCE OF STRONGER TSTM DEVELOPMENT. AT LEAST A
   CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES.

   DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ROUGHLY WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
   MO TO ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER OH RIVER INTO PARTS OF KY. TO
   THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...AMPLE CLOUD COVER HAS GENERALLY PERSISTED
   WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS. IN SPITE OF THESE
   CLOUDS...THE WARMING/MOISTENING NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
   LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. INITIALLY
   ELEVATED SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED FROM EASTERN AR
   NORTHEASTWARD TO AROUND THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RIVERS IN CLOSE
   PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. 

   ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS...INCLUDING THE EXACT MAGNITUDE/EXTENT OF
   ANY SEVERE RISK...ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE
   TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITHIN A MOIST
   ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH MASS CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE IS MODEST
   AWAY FROM THE WARM FRONT...THESE STORMS COULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
   SURFACE BASED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR
   SUPERCELLS GIVEN MORE THAN ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR. PROVIDED THIS
   SCENARIO...SEVERE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WOULD
   BE POSSIBLE.

   ..GUYER/HART.. 04/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32739210 33479281 35399199 35499196 36759028 37938916
               37718749 35398687 33078932 32609114 32739210 

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Page last modified: April 02, 2014
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