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Mesoscale Discussion 250
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0250
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0600 PM CDT WED APR 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK/SRN AND SERN KS/PART OF FAR SWRN MO

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 46...

   VALID 022300Z - 030000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 46 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TSTM INITIATION HAS OCCURRED OVER FAR SERN KS WITH
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE WSWWD ALONG A NWD MOVING WARM FRONT.
   LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS...WHILE
   A TORNADO THREAT ALSO EXISTS. GIVEN THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE
   NWD THROUGH THE NRN EXTENT OF WW 46...ADDITIONAL COUNTIES IN SOUTH
   CENTRAL KS WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR INCLUSION INTO THIS WATCH.
   FARTHER ENE IN EAST CENTRAL KS...IF THE BOUNDARY ADVANCES A LITTLE
   FARTHER NWD...THEN A NEW WW MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A
   WARM FRONT ADVANCING NWD THROUGH FAR NORTH CENTRAL OK /NEAR THE KS
   BORDER/...WITH THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENEWD INTO FAR SERN KS /NOW
   JUST N OF KCNU/.  VANCE OK WSR-88D WIND PROFILER INDICATED
   STRENGTHENING...VERTICALLY VEERING LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS WHICH WILL
   FAVOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT
   ROTATION.  MODERATE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J
   PER KG/ IS PRESENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND COMBINED
   WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-65 KT CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...STORM MOTION
   IS FORECAST TO THE ENE TENDING TO KEEP STORMS WITHIN WW 46. 
   HOWEVER...IF THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NWD...ADDITIONAL
   COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL KS WILL NEED TO BE
   CONSIDERED FOR ADDING TO WW 46 AND/OR NEW WW ISSUANCE.

   ..PETERS.. 04/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   36919902 37409823 38019702 38169615 38359477 37999418
               37039404 36849488 36569514 36209618 36149762 35729774
               35429877 35459934 36119937 36919902 

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Page last modified: April 03, 2014
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