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Mesoscale Discussion 251
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0251
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1208 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST CO...SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL NEB...AND
   ADJACENT SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SD

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 231708Z - 232315Z

   SUMMARY...SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS A
   CORRIDOR OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST CO
   THROUGH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL NEB AND ADJACENT SOUTH-CENTRAL
   AND SOUTHEAST SD.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SNOWFALL RATES UP TO
   AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR...AT TIMES...WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. 
   MEANWHILE...STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS
   OF BLOWING SNOW...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
   CO INTO PART OF SOUTHWEST NEB.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A NARROW BAND OF
   WINTRY PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING FROM WELD COUNTY CO TO
   CHEYENNE COUNTY NEB...AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
   CHERRY COUNTY NEB TO SOUTHEAST SD /INCLUDING MHE AND IN VICINITY AND
   NORTH OF FSD/.  THE PRESENCE OF 1/ VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   PER CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SOUNDINGS AND 2/ STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD
   VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN A DEFORMATION ZONE LOCATED NORTHWEST-NORTH OF
   THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACK THROUGH WESTERN KS TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEB
   IS ALREADY RESULTING IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT /SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
   THUS FAR/ IN FAR NORTHEAST CO AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST NEB. THUNDER
   SNOW BEGAN AT KSNY AT 1552Z.

   SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING THIS MORNING PER TRENDS IN
   OBSERVATIONS IN THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND ESPECIALLY IN FAR
   NORTHEAST CO AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST NEB WHERE THERE IS STRONG
   DYNAMIC COOLING AND LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION.  THESE COOLING
   THERMAL PROCESSES WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA AS 1/ STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
   NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF
   STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL JETS...AND 2/ LOW-LEVEL
   COLD AIR ADVECTION SPREADS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE
   LOW SHIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN KS.  FURTHER MOISTENING
   WITHIN THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND THE PRECIPITATION
   AREA...WITH INITIAL PRECIPITATION-TYPES TENDING TO BE MIXED
   INCLUDING SLEET BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. 
   THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG EML ACROSS THIS REGION AND ELEVATED
   BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP
   FROM NORTHEAST CO INTO NEB...LOCALLY ENHANCING PRECIPITATION RATES. 
   MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
   THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW...WITH THIS THREAT THE GREATEST FROM
   NORTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST NEB WHERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SHOULD
   DEVELOP.

   ..PETERS.. 03/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40180429 41230374 43609869 43649780 43509713 42399817
               41589935 40710055 39900173 39560262 39430392 39500461
               40180429 

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Page last modified: March 23, 2016
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