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Mesoscale Discussion 251
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0251
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0312 PM CDT THU APR 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE MO...SE IA...NRN/CNTRL IL...FAR SE WI

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 39...41...

   VALID 092012Z - 092145Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 39...41...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS...INCLUDING
   TORNADOES...CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
   CURRENTLY FOCUSED ACROSS WW 39. RISK STILL EXISTS IN WW 41 WITH ANY
   DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
   TSTMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM S-CNTRL IA SWWD THROUGH
   CNTRL MO. SUPERCELL THAT PRODUCED A TORNADO IN PEORIA COUNTY IL HAS
   NOW WEAKENED WITH THE MOST IMMEDIATELY APPARENT SEVERE THREAT
   CURRENTLY RELEGATED TO WW 39. SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND THE MCV /AND
   AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/ WITH THE ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY
   CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
   60S...AND SWLY WINDS AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WARM AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL
   CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG DESPITE
   RELATIVELY MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FORCING WITHIN THE WARM
   SECTOR WILL BE RATHER NEBULOUS BUT A RISK FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS
   EXISTS WITH IF ANY DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR. FARTHER W ACROSS
   WW 39...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
   STORM ORGANIZATION AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM
   THE W.

   ..MOSIER.. 04/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   41659308 42439134 42638815 41378726 40118753 39009084
               38659346 41659308 

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Page last modified: April 09, 2015
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