MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0251
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0123 PM CST FRI MAR 08 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 081923Z - 082100Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES OVER THE SRN HALF OF
   AZ...A MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL NEAR 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...AS WELL AS
   SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST. A WW IS UNLIKELY.
   
   DISCUSSION...AT 19Z...WV IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHING
   SRN AZ. SURFACE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS CHARACTERIZED
   BY TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND
   40S. SUBSEQUENT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH
   INCREASING ASCENT IS AIDING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   ACROSS THE AREA. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT
   HEATING/MOISTENING AT THE SURFACE IS AIDING IN MUCAPE VALUES NEAR
   500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...EXIT REGION OF 40+ KT MIDLEVEL SWLY JET IS
   CONTRIBUTING TOWARD 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 50 KT...WHICH IS
   SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HAIL
   APPROACHING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...AS WELL AS GUSTY THUNDERSTORM
   WINDS.
   
   ..GARNER/EDWARDS.. 03/08/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
   
   LAT...LON   32201375 32471390 33301367 33781275 33601038 32800935
               31740970 31331028 31501162 32201375