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Mesoscale Discussion 251
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0251
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0936 PM CDT WED APR 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN KS INTO WRN/CENTRAL MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 030236Z - 030330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF TSTMS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AND ERN KS WILL
   CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS WITH PRIMARY THREATS BEING HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  HOWEVER...A CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT STILL
   EXISTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE INVOF THE WARM FRONT
   WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND SURFACE VORTICITY IS MAXIMIZED.  STORMS
   SHOULD TRACK TO THE NE...WITH THE OVERALL MCS MOVEMENT TENDING TO
   SHIFT ENEWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL MO.  THESE TRENDS SUGGEST THE NEED FOR
   A WW TO BE COORDINATED SOON FOR PARTS OF ERN KS INTO PARTS OF
   WRN/CENTRAL MO.

   DISCUSSION...THE 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WARM FRONT
   EXTENDING ENEWD FROM FAR NWRN OK /INVOF HARPER COUNTY/ THROUGH FAR
   SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND SERN KS TO WEST CENTRAL MO /NEAR NRN VERNON
   COUNTY/...AND THEN ESEWD INTO SERN MO.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED
   THE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT HAD MUCAPE RANGING FROM
   1000-2000 J/KG...WHILE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THE AIR MASS
   REMAINED STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG.  WIND
   PROFILER DATA ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SHOWED A 40-50 KT SSWLY LLJ
   EXTENDING FROM OK INTO ERN KS/WRN MO.  FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THIS
   LLJ IS EXPECTED WITH GRADUAL VEERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL
   RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WAA TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTIVE
   COMPLEX OVER ERN KS MOVING INTO MO.

   GIVEN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR...HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.  HOWEVER...AS INDICATED IN THE
   SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT REMAINS WITH STORMS INVOF THE WARM
   FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SERN KS WHERE EFFECTIVE SRH
   OF 200-300 M2/S2 SUPPORTS LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION.  THIS THREAT
   SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION
   INCREASES.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 04/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37279766 38699724 39129687 39359540 39399439 39329329
               38889247 38019226 37629243 37489305 37489451 37489582
               37279766 

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Page last modified: April 03, 2014
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