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Mesoscale Discussion 252
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0107 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB / SWRN IA / NWRN MO / EXTREME NERN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 231807Z - 232030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND ISSUED DURING
   THE 20-21Z PERIOD.  THE RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE CONFINED TO
   A WEDGE-SHAPED AREA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TO THE E OF
   AN ARCING DRYLINE AND BOUNDED TO THE N BY A STATIONARY FRONT.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BUILDING CU FIELD
   FROM SERN NEB SEWD TO THE GREATER KANSAS CITY AREA.  17Z SUBJECTIVE
   SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER S-CNTRL NEB/N-CNTRL KS WITH
   AN ARCING DRYLINE EXTENDING E AND SEWD INTO ERN KS WITH A STATIONARY
   FRONT EXTENDING E OF THE SURFACE LOW.  COLD AIR N OF THE STATIONARY
   FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ENTRENCHED AND LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED
   OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THIS BOUNDARY.  A WARM/MOIST SECTOR
   FEATURES THE MOIST AXIS WITH LOW TO MID 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS
   IMMEDIATELY E OF THE ARCING DRYLINE AND TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE
   INTO THE 70S CONTRIBUTING TO ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.  

   AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN INTENSE 100 KT H5 JET STREAK OVER OK/KS
   NOSES TOWARDS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...LARGE-SCALE FORCING
   FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY COINCIDENT WITH A WEAKENING IN
   THE CAPPING INVERSION.  ISOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST AROUND
   21Z.  STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR /40-50 KT/ WILL SUPPORT STORM
   ORGANIZATION AND A COUPLE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY MATURE INTO
   SUPERCELLS.  BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY WITH THE NERN
   EXTENSION OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES /8 DEG C OR HIGHER/ WILL FOSTER
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL ACCELERATIONS OF PARCELS WITH ANY
   SUPERCELL RESIDING IN THE RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. 
   AS A RESULT...THE RISK FOR MESOCYCLONES CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES
   WILL PROBABLY MAXIMIZE DURING THE 22-00Z PERIOD.  LARGE HAIL AND
   DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

   ..SMITH/GRAMS.. 03/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   39589574 40199639 40279705 40589732 40799712 41179637
               41319488 41109403 40699358 40089340 39589352 39219381
               39319505 39589574 

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Page last modified: March 23, 2016
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