MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0343 PM CST FRI MAR 08 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX THROUGH THE CNTRL AND ERN TX AND OK
   PANHANDLES AND EXTREME SWRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 082143Z - 090015Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING
   ACROSS A PORTION OF WRN TX NWD INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE AND LATER
   INTO PARTS OF THE OK PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SWRN KS. TIMING IS
   SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT INITIATION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BETWEEN 23-01Z.
   
   DISCUSSION...DRYLINE WAS LOCATED FROM THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE NEAR
   AMARILLO SWD THROUGH WRN TX. DOWNWARD MIXING OF STRONGER SWLY WINDS
   ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN THE DRYLINE SURGING EWD THROUGH NRN PARTS OF
   WRN TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY HAS RECENTLY
   BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO RETREAT WWD AS
   MIXING DIMINISHES WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. CHARACTER OF
   CLOUDS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND NAM PFCS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
   STILL CAPPED EAST OF DRYLINE...WHERE MOIST AXIS WITH LOW-MID 50S
   DEWPOINTS CONTINUE ADVECTING NWWD BENEATH AN EML. THE ATMOSPHERE
   CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE NWD WHERE AN AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE
   CURRENTLY EXISTS EAST OF THE CAP ROCK. 
   
   HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT AHEAD OF A
   PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD THROUGH NM
   INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THIS ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG WITH A PACIFIC
   FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY INTERCEPT THE RETREATING DRYLINE  AND MOIST
   AXIS OVER WRN TX DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THESE PROCESSES WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING CAP...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
   DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD NEWD. SHEAR
   PROFILES WILL INCREASE TO AOA 45 KT SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
   SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL INCREASE IN SIZE THIS EVENING.
   HOWEVER...TENDENCY FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO STABILIZE AS THE LLJ
   STRENGTHENS SHOULD KEEP TORNADO WINDOW RELATIVELY SMALL.
   
   ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 03/08/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   32120171 32630245 34620209 36590206 37280164 36900021
               34839996 33150071 32120171