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Mesoscale Discussion 253
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0253
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0353 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO EAST-CENTRAL OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 232053Z - 232300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS PART OF
   NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO EAST-CENTRAL OK BETWEEN 23-00Z...WITH LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO THREAT ALL POSSIBLE AS STORMS
   INCREASE IN INTENSITY.  WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...RAPID-SCAN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DETECTED AN
   INCREASE IN CU FORMATION IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OK AND SOUTHWARD INTO
   ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX...WITH ADDITIONAL CU BECOMING
   SUSTAINED TO IN VICINITY OF THE TULSA METRO AREA.  THIS CU WAS
   FORMING WITHIN A SUSTAINED CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN
   VICINITY OF THE DRY LINE...AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH
   THIS EVENING.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED LOWERING LFCS AND
   WEAKENING INHIBITION WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF CU DEVELOPMENT WITH
   MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 50 KT IS
   FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS WITH THE INITIAL STORMS.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAKER AT THIS
   TIME...LIMITING THE TORNADO THREAT WITH INITIAL STORMS...THOUGH AN
   INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BY EARLY EVENING COULD SUPPORT AN
   INCREASED TORNADO THREAT.  MOST HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST STORM
   DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 22-00Z.

   ..PETERS/GRAMS.. 03/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36039603 35939527 34929525 34109586 33779627 33559702
               33639729 33929726 34649683 35379655 35929631 36039603 

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Page last modified: March 23, 2016
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