Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 253
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 253 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0253
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0105 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/SERN NEB/SRN IA/NRN MO/NWRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 030605Z - 030700Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ATTM N OF EXISTING SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCHES ACROSS KS AND MO...AND WILL SPREAD NEWD WITH
   TIME.  RISK FOR ISOLATED HAIL IS APPARENT WITH STRONGER
   STORMS...THOUGH WW MAY NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO ISOLATED/MARGINAL
   NATURE OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES DEPICT A 60 KT SSWLY LOW-LEVEL
   JET ACROSS OK AND INTO ERN KS/NWRN MO.  STORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS
   NERN KS/NRN MO ATTM...WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION NEAR
   THE NOSE OF THE JET.

   WHILE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM OMAHA NEB AND DAVENPORT IA SHOW LITTLE
   CAPE...RAP MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS JUST SOUTH OF THE OBSERVED
   SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED CAPE ATOP THE COOL BOUNDARY
   LAYER.  THE RAPID EXPANSION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS
   AREA CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF AMPLE CAPE...WITH A FEW VIGOROUS CELLS
   NOW EVOLVING ACROSS THE SRN FRINGE OF THIS ACTIVITY.

   WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND 50 KT FROM THE W...CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR IS
   SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION IN AREAS WHERE CAPE IS
   SUFFICIENT.  AS SUCH...RISK FOR ISOLATED HAIL AT/ABOVE SEVERE LEVELS
   WILL LIKELY EXPAND ENEWD -- N OF THE EXISTING WW AREAS.

   ..GOSS/EDWARDS.. 04/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
   GID...

   LAT...LON   39429549 39139715 39119829 39649852 40789678 41589434
               41529044 39999058 39429549 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 03, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities