MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0253
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0724 PM CST FRI MAR 08 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES...TX S PLAINS...FAR WRN OK...FAR
   SWRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 090124Z - 090300Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH
   WILL SPREAD EWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...AND COULD SUPPORT AN
   UPSWING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF TSTMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL...BUT SOME SVR WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A
   TORNADO ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
   BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
   
   DISCUSSION...SFC OBSERVATIONS FROM 01Z SHOW A DRYLINE ALIGNED
   LONGITUDINALLY NEAR I-27 SLOWLY BEGINNING TO RETREAT WWD ACROSS THE
   TX S PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN...WHERE A SLIGHT DEWPOINT
   INCREASE AND BACKING OF SFC WINDS WAS NOTED AT KLBB. SHOWERS SLOWLY
   INCREASING IN INTENSITY NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER APPEAR TO BE
   CO-LOCATED WITH THE ERN EDGE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER ASCENT/MIDLEVEL
   HEIGHT FALLS. STRONG/SVR GUSTS HAVE BEEN NOTED RECENTLY ACROSS THE
   SWRN TX PANHANDLE PER THE TTU WEST TEXAS MESONET. WITH
   TIME...INCREASING ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   /E.G. SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID-40S TO MID-50S/ E OF THE DRYLINE AND
   SHOULD FOSTER AN INCREASE IN TSTMS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. THIS
   POTENTIAL MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED WITH SWD EXTENT GIVEN THE
   PRESENCE OF A STOUT MIDLEVEL CAP NEAR 500 MB PER THE 00Z MAF
   SOUNDING. 
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-SFC BASED STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY WANE
   THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
   STABILIZE...AND SHOULD RESULT IN A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN THE DMGG
   WIND AND TORNADO THREAT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST
   CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR.
   
   ..ROGERS/GUYER.. 03/09/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   35269964 34159999 33450075 32810140 32410216 32740278
               33280284 35320203 36890149 37190115 37390047 37349937
               35269964