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Mesoscale Discussion 254
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0254
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0406 PM CDT THU APR 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA...MUCH OF SC...WRN AND CNTRL NC...FAR SRN
   VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 092106Z - 092200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.  GIVEN BRIEF...ERRATIC
   NATURE OF THE THREAT WW NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
   AND ALSO ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  STORMS ARE FORMING IN AN ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000-1500
   J/KG/ BUT VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOB 20 KNOTS.  THE WEAK SHEAR
   SHOULD LIMIT ANY ORGANIZATION TO JUST BRIEF DOWNBURSTS THAT MAY
   APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS ON A VERY ISOLATED BASIS.  STORMS SHOULD ALSO
   WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  ANY HAIL OR
   WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY ISOLATED/SPORADIC IN
   NATURE...THUS PRECLUDING WW ISSUANCE FOR THIS AREA.

   ..COOK/HART.. 04/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

   LAT...LON   35558322 36218240 36858140 36788026 36367864 35527824
               34917837 34497863 33987897 33487947 33258006 33178072
               33278172 33378268 33658325 34278362 34758353 35558322 

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Page last modified: April 09, 2015
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