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Mesoscale Discussion 254
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0254
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0617 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN KS...WRN MO...FAR NERN OK...FAR
   NWRN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 232317Z - 240145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
   PARTS OF FAR ERN KS INTO EXTREME NERN OK DURING THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS PARTS OF WRN MO AND PERHAPS FAR NWRN
   AR. A FEW INSTANCES OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SVR HAIL
   COULD OCCUR...AND WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG DEEP ASCENT PRECEDING A COMPACT MID-LEVEL
   CYCLONE CROSSING PARTS OF THE CNTRL GREAT PLAINS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AMIDST A PLUME OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL RETURN
   MOISTURE E OF A DRYLINE -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
   50S. AS THE CYCLONE-RELATED SFC LOW COMPLEX ANALYZED OVER N-CNTRL KS
   CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD...WITH E-OF-DRYLINE POLEWARD FLUXES OF
   PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL
   DESTABILIZATION IN PARTS OF THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

   AMPLE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR...WITH VWPS AT SGF AND EAX SAMPLING
   50-60 KT OF FLOW AROUND 3 KM AGL...MAY SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
   CLUSTERS /PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS/. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY
   SCATTERED SVR WIND/HAIL COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL DEARTH OF
   DEEP MOISTURE -- I.E. PW AROUND 0.75 INCH PER GPS DATA -- AND
   ANTECEDENT SFC-LAYER DIABATIC HEATING BEING STUNTED BY CIRRUS
   CANOPIES AND SMOKE PLUMES FROM UPSTREAM FIRES...CAST CONSIDERABLE
   DOUBT ON THE OVERALL PROSPECTS FOR SUFFICIENTLY WIDESPREAD ROBUST
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR WW ISSUANCE. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE
   CASE AS NIGHTFALL APPROACHES AND MLCINH GROWS. REGARDLESS...
   SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY AND AMPLE DEEP SHEAR WARRANT SOME CONCERN FOR AN
   EVOLVING SVR RISK INTO/THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 03/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   36669566 37899542 39009520 39379455 39289271 37899306
               36649406 36369494 36669566 

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