MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0255
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1133 PM CST FRI MAR 08 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX/WRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 48...
   
   VALID 090533Z - 090700Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 48
   CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
   MOVING NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN OK SSWWD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS
   DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER 06-08Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
   AND AIR MASS STABILIZATION CONTINUES.
   
   DISCUSSION...EARLIER NNE/SSW LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS
   LOST LINEAR ORGANIZATION WITH WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
   NOW MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE SRN/ERN TX
   PANHANDLE.  WIND PROFILER AND WSR-88D VWP DATA INDICATE THAT THE
   SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED FROM WRN/CNTRL TX INTO OK
   WITH 45-55 KT WINDS NOTED NEAR 850 MB...MAINTAINING A NWD FLUX OF
   MOISTURE OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS.  HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CONVECTION
   HAS LIKELY WEAKENED LAPSE RATES /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
   INTO NWRN OK/...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL
   COOLING...IS LIMITING CAPE TO AOB 500 J/KG.  
   
   STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE
   UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS AZ IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS NM INTO WRN
   TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET
   PROGRESSES NEWD...SUGGESTING THAT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY
   REDEVELOP FROM PARTS OF ERN NM INTO WRN TX.  DESPITE STRONG VERTICAL
   SHEAR IN PLACE...WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
   SEVERE THREAT WITH TIME.
   
   ..WEISS.. 03/09/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   33110264 36960132 36939883 32979999 33110264