Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 255
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 255 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0255
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0436 PM CDT THU APR 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 092136Z - 092330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR A TORNADO
   OR TWO WILL EXIST WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   EARLY THIS EVENING. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST WSR-88D MOSAIC DEPICTS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
   THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING GENERALLY ENEWD ACROSS NRN OH...JUST SOUTH
   OF LAKE ERIE. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FROM
   ASCENT FROM A WEAK PERTURBATION IN SW FLOW ALOFT...WORKING IN
   CONCERT WITH SOME FOCUS FOR INITIATION ALONG A WARM FRONT IN THE
   VICINITY. ONE CELL IN PARTICULAR OVER SENECA/SANDUSKY COUNTIES HAS
   SHOWN SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS...WITH SOME ROTATION APPARENT IN
   MRMS PRODUCTS. THE CELL IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
   BY MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 400-1000 J/KG...AND THESE VALUES MAY
   INCREASE FURTHER TO NEAR 1500 J/KG IN ANY POCKETS OF STRONGER
   INSOLATION. STRONG FLOW ALOFT IS YIELDING EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF
   AROUND 40-45 KTS...WHICH COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL SRH
   /APPARENT IN REGIONAL VWP DATA AND FCST SOUNDINGS/...WILL OFFER THE
   POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND THE RESULTANT POSSIBILITY OF
   A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR A TORNADO OR TWO. IF CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS INCREASE...A WW MAY BE NECESSARY.

   ..PICCA/HART.. 04/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   41388375 41518300 41478261 41468175 41378141 41298122
               41278106 40938113 40628129 40438170 40328239 40448311
               40778378 41198384 41388375 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 09, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities