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Mesoscale Discussion 255
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0255
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0624 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 031124Z - 031300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LIMITED THREAT FOR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO OR TWO WITHIN THE
   ADVANCING QLCS MAY CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...THOUGH WW WILL
   LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR LOOP REVEALS A PERSISTENT/BOWING LINE OF STORMS
   MOVING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO SRN IL ATTM...WITH A
   GENERAL/GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND EVIDENT IN REFLECTIVITY DATA
   OBSERVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  THAT SAID...A COUPLE OF
   WEAK CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITHIN THE LINE IN THE STL
   VICINITY...WITH AT LEAST ONE OF THESE CIRCULATIONS HAVING BEEN
   ASSOCIATED WITH A BRIEF TORNADO.  IT APPEARS THAT WITH THE LINE
   ADVANCING EWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...THIS SOURCE OF
   LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE UPTICK IN OBSERVED
   CIRCULATION WITHIN THE LINE.

   THE LINE OF STORMS IS NOW MOVING ALONG THE NERN FRINGE OF
   MIXED-LAYER CAPE PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES...DESPITE LOCAL/NWD
   RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT AS A RESULT OF THE LARGER-SCALE CONVECTIVE
   LOW.  AS SUCH EXPECT STORMS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND/OR BECOME
   SLIGHTLY ELEVATED LATER THIS MORNING AS THEN SHIFT INTO SRN INDIANA.
    IN THE MEAN TIME...AN ADDITIONAL WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
   POSSIBLE.

   ..GOSS/EDWARDS.. 04/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   37658905 37989003 38179009 38558958 39378942 39008811
               38068802 37658905 

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Page last modified: April 03, 2014
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