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Mesoscale Discussion 256
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0256
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0715 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN SD...EXTREME NERN NEB...NRN IA...SRN
   MN...W-CNTRL WI

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 240015Z - 240615Z

   SUMMARY...FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM EXTREME NERN NEB/SERN SD
   INTO W-CNTRL WI THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AREAS OF HEAVY
   SNOW...ALONG WITH AREAS OF SLEET...ARE EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...A RADAR LOOP SHOWS AN ARC OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED
   CONVECTION EVOLVING WITHIN THE DCVA PLUME PRECEDING A COMPACT
   MID-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT PLAINS -- EVOLVING FROM WRN
   IA TO FAR ERN KS. THIS ACTIVITY -- CONTAINING LIGHTNING -- WILL
   CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD/NWD AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH AN EXTENSIVE
   CYCLONE-RELATED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT BRANCHES ENEWD TO LOWER MI.
   THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION RATES DURING
   THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...AS THE MID-LEVEL
   CYCLONE ADVANCES ENEWD. WITH SUB-FREEZING WET-BULB TEMPERATURES
   EITHER ALREADY IN PLACE AT THE SFC...OR BECOMING ESTABLISHED AS
   AIDED BY MODEST LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL
   BE SUPPORTED.

   IN GENERAL...SUFFICIENTLY DEEP SUBFREEZING PROFILES THROUGH THE
   COLUMN WILL SUPPORT SNOW -- SOME HEAVY WITH RATES REACHING 1.0-1.5
   INCHES PER HOUR AS STRONG FRONTOGENETIC ASCENT AND CONVECTIVE
   PROCESSES EXTEND THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ALOFT. BANDS OF
   ONGOING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MN INTO W-CNTRL
   WI WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH SNOW INCREASING IN
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY FARTHER S THROUGH 03Z. HOWEVER...SLEET -- WITH
   SLEET-ACCUMULATION RATES TO 0.25 INCH PER HOUR -- MAY AFFECT PARTS
   OF N-CNTRL/NERN IA PARTICULARLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE
   ELEMENTS...AS AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL SUPPORT PARTIAL MELTING OF
   DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS THAT WILL REFREEZE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER. LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY THE HIGHEST FROZEN PRECIPITATION
   RATES...AS WELL. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ENEWD THROUGH THE
   EVENING AND CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

   ..COHEN.. 03/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   44318988 43539038 43069194 42579561 42689698 43199701
               43859610 44829264 44869055 44318988 

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