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Mesoscale Discussion 256
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0256
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0642 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND NERN TX INTO SERN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 031142Z - 031315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS N CENTRAL TX MAY POSE SOME HAIL
   RISK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...THOUGH A
   SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD REQUIRE
   CONSIDERATION FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS W/NW OF THE DFW METROPLEX OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR
   SO...WHICH APPEAR TO BE BASED ABOVE A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER --
   LIKELY ABOVE 700 MB.  THE DEVELOPMENT IS SOMEWHAT POORLY DEPICTED BY
   HIGH-RES MODELS...AND APPEARS TO BE TIED TO A SUBTLE VORT MAX MOVING
   NEWD ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS TOWARD SWRN OK PER WV LOOP.

   WHILE ELEVATED...AMPLE CAPE IS AVAILABLE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME...AND CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT
   FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS IS ALSO PRESENT.  AS SUCH...A FEW STRONGER
   STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL MAY EVOLVE -- SPREADING ENEWD WITH
   TIME INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.  WHILE ATTM RISK APPEARS TO BE
   LIMITED/ISOLATED IN NATURE...WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY SHOULD
   AGGRESSIVE EXPANSION IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OCCUR ACROSS THIS AREA.

   ..GOSS/EDWARDS.. 04/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   32099809 32259871 32999838 33869792 34529604 34479472
               32959446 32329576 32099809 

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Page last modified: April 03, 2014
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