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Mesoscale Discussion 256
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0256
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0446 PM CDT THU APR 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 092146Z - 092315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...NORTH OF A SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN IL
   INTO FAR SOUTHERN WI...MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS MAY POSE AT LEAST AN
   ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   SOUTHERN INTO EAST-CENTRAL WI.

   DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF A STEADILY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...A WARM
   FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE IL/WI
   BORDER VICINITY THROUGH THIS EVENING. TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM
   FRONT/S NORTHWARD ADVANCE...INCREASING WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL MAINLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI INTO
   SOUTH-CENTRAL/EVENTUALLY EAST-CENTRAL WI. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
   BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER MAY
   CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM
   FRONT-RELATED SURFACE BASED SEVERE RISK ACROSS NORTHERN IL/FAR
   SOUTHERN WI.

   ..GUYER/HART.. 04/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...

   LAT...LON   43268780 43208878 42788974 42639025 43559037 44218813
               43948741 43348772 43268780 

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Page last modified: April 09, 2015
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