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Mesoscale Discussion 257
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0257
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0745 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN IA...NRN MO

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 51...

   VALID 240045Z - 240245Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 51 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR RISK MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
   HOURS WITH CONVECTION CROSSING PARTS OF SRN IA/NRN MO...BUT THIS
   ACTIVITY IS LIKELY PAST PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL BE FURTHER WEAKENING
   WITH TIME. ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

   DISCUSSION...LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITHIN AN ARC
   FROM SWRN IA TO NWRN MO WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EWD DURING THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS. A FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND GUSTS CANNOT
   BE RULED OUT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT TRAVERSES A NWD-EXTENDING
   PLUME OF MODEST RETURN MOISTURE -- DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 
   50S -- AMIDST STRONG DEEP SHEAR. HOWEVER...WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING
   FORECAST TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN MLCINH IN THE
   ONLY-MODEST-DEWPOINT ENVIRONMENT...THE OVERALL SVR WIND/HAIL RISK IS
   DIMINISHING. THE SVR RISK DECREASES TO NIL IN THE WAKE OF THIS
   ACTIVITY.

   ..COHEN.. 03/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39509404 40259409 40869418 41139408 41159350 41029271
               40309258 39639293 39509404 

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Page last modified: March 24, 2016
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