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Mesoscale Discussion 257
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0257
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0453 PM CDT THU APR 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 44...

   VALID 092153Z - 100000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 44
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   N-CNTRL TX...INCLUDING THE DFW METROPLEX...FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
   OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL EXTENSION OF WW 44 MAY BE
   NECESSARY IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TREND UPWARD.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND KFWS DATA INDICATE
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX. RECENT MESOANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST STRONG INSOLATION AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S HAVE
   RESULTED IN MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL WIND
   FIELD IS RELATIVELY MODEST...EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35-40 KT /APPARENT
   IN LOCAL VWP DATA/ IS AVAILABLE FOR ORGANIZATION/ROTATION OF
   STRONGER UPDRAFTS. AS SUCH...IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS REMAIN
   POSITIVE...A LOCAL EXTENSION WWD OF WW 44 MAY BE NECESSARY TO
   ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS.

   ..PICCA.. 04/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31789879 32559823 33569695 33749636 33549615 32829627
               31729756 31579800 31569889 31789879 

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Page last modified: April 10, 2015
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