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Mesoscale Discussion 257
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0257
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0918 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MO...WRN AR...FAR ERN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 031418Z - 031515Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ELEVATED TSTMS MOVING ENEWD OUT OF ERN OK INTO NWRN AR AND
   SWRN MO WILL POSE AN INITIAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. AS THE
   ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED STORMS...A THREAT
   FOR DMGG WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES /POTENTIALLY STRONG/ IS EXPECTED
   TO EVOLVE. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 15Z.

   DISCUSSION...A LINE OF ELEVATED STRONG-SVR TSTMS OVER ERN OK HAS
   SHOWN INDICATIONS OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AT TIMES PER LATEST RADAR
   IMAGES FROM KSRX. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY
   OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS AND EML PLUME POSITIONED OVER NERN TX AND ERN
   OK. SUBSTANTIAL HEATING IS OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS CONVECTION
   ACROSS NWRN AR AND SWRN MO...AND WITH A RELATIVELY WEAKER CAPPING
   INVERSION IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA /PER 12Z SGF RAOB/...THE
   ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED
   CONVECTION. AND DESPITE THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED
   WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT REMAINING WELL TO THE N/W OF THE
   REGION...ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR AHEAD OF AN
   UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON GIVEN FURTHER
   DESTABILIZATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND A
   FEW TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING AND
   AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE TSTMS.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 04/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36749464 37949417 38169269 37849170 36489147 34739218
               34039340 33889389 33909425 34249471 35359481 36159473
               36749464 

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Page last modified: April 03, 2014
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