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Mesoscale Discussion 258
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0258
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0520 PM CDT THU APR 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 092220Z - 092345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE RISK...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING A
   TORNADO...MAY EXIST ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI THROUGH EARLY EVENING
   IN VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT...WITH A GREATER COVERAGE OF
   STRONGER/POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER THIS
   EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...A MODESTLY DEFINED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
   NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI THIS EVENING. POSSIBLY AIDED BY A
   WEAK MCV OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI/FAR SOUTHWEST MI...A COUPLE OF
   THUNDERSTORMS HAVE APPEARED TO EXHIBIT AT LEAST WEAK SUPERCELL
   CHARACTERISTICS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MI AS 0F 22Z. LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR/SRH IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE GRAND
   RAPIDS/DETROIT WSR-88D VWPS INDICATIVE OF 250+ M2/S2 0-1 KM
   SRH...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SUPERCELLS
   POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF A BRIEF TORNADO AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   CONTINUES TO MODESTLY WARM/MOISTEN IN TANDEM WITH THE WARM FRONT.
   PENDING UPSTREAM ORGANIZATION OF STORMS OVER NORTHERN IL/FAR
   SOUTHERN WI...A MORE CERTAIN ROUND OF STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE
   STORMS COULD MOVE INTO LOWER MI LATER THIS EVENING.

   ..GUYER/HART.. 04/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   42738629 42908535 42728365 42158319 41768360 41858641
               42738629 

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Page last modified: April 09, 2015
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