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Mesoscale Discussion 258
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0258
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0922 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...WRN AND CNTRL KY INTO MIDDLE TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 031422Z - 031545Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MCD AREA LATE
   THIS MORNING WILL POSE A MARGINAL WIND AND SUB-SEVERE HAIL THREAT
   INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A WATCH IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. SEVERE
   THREAT MAY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AFTER INITIAL
   MORNING ACTIVITY CLEARS THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...A LINE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS ONGOING ACROSS
   PARTS OF SRN IL AND TRACKING EWD TOWARD SRN IND IN WARM/MOIST
   ADVECTION NEAR THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LLJ. DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR
   ASCENT IS BEING PROVIDED BY A LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS
   IL/IND THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH FURTHER WEST NOW
   ENTERING THE PLAINS. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO
   PERIODICALLY DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS WRN/CNTRL KY INTO
   MIDDLE TN. WHILE DAYTIME HEATING WILL INCREASE
   INSTABILITY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE
   EJECTING ACROSS IL/IND SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL AT LEAST
   THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THAT BEING SAID...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND MODEST MUCAPE APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG WILL LEND TO A
   MARGINAL HAIL THREAT IN STRONGER STORMS. LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE NOTED
   IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD LIMIT STRONG WIND POTENTIAL DESPITE 50+
   KT LLJ NOTED AROUND 1 KFT IN AREA WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES. A
   SPORADIC STRONGER GUST COULD ACCOMPANY STRONGEST CELLS HOWEVER GIVEN
   FAIRLY QUICK STORM MOTION TO THE E/NE. 

   A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   37468868 37798792 38148736 38508677 38758615 38658556
               38338517 37898516 37118544 36378598 35888638 35718681
               35678764 35998872 36338923 37018911 37468868 

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Page last modified: April 03, 2014
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