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Mesoscale Discussion 259
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0259
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1205 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MO...WRN AR

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 49...

   VALID 031705Z - 031800Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 49 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS PERSISTS
   ACROSS SWRN MO AND WRN AR. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE PREDICATED ON
   SFC-BASED DISCRETE TSTM DEVELOPMENT...AND IS LIKELY TO INCREASE INTO
   THE AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER ERN OK AND WRN
   AR CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS SWRN MO...SHOWING INTERMITTENT
   SIGNS OF BEING LOOSELY ORGANIZED. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS
   DEVELOPED NEAR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FARTHER N IN SWRN MO. THESE
   STORMS INITIALLY APPEARED TO BE ELEVATED...BUT HAVE BEEN SHOWING
   INCREASING SIGNS OF ROTATION AND ORGANIZATION MORE RECENTLY. A
   TORNADO THREAT...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS...CANNOT
   BE RULED OUT WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE
   BOUNDARY. 

   THE 15Z SGF SOUNDING INDICATED WEAK CAPPING WAS STILL PRESENT...AND
   HEATING ACROSS THE REGION IS BEING AFFECTED BY ANVIL-LEVEL CIRRUS
   FROM CONVECTION OVER SERN OK AND NE TX. HOWEVER...CINH FOR SFC-BASED
   STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON VIA DYNAMIC
   COOLING WITH APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH...AND ANY
   ADDITIONAL HEATING THAT CAN OCCUR. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE
   FOR TORNADOES /0-1 KM SRH EXCEEDING 300 J/KG PER SRX
   VWP/...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURS.

   LATEST THINKING IS THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTM WILL OCCUR ALONG AN
   APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE...AND MAY AFFECT
   PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 49 LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A RENEWED
   THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 04/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   37269125 35829162 34389222 33999335 34229435 36039454
               37369438 37929396 38159291 37859187 37269125 

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Page last modified: April 03, 2014
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