MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0259
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1200 PM CST SAT MAR 09 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR N-CNTRL KS...S-CNTRL NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 091800Z - 091930Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
   ACROSS FAR N-CNTRL KS AND S-CNTRL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS
   ACTIVITY MAY POSE A THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES...IN
   ADDITION TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AREA IS
   BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.
   
   DISCUSSION...MIDDAY MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
   PRESSURE/TRIPLE POINT LOCATED NNE OF HLC...WITH A PACIFIC FRONT
   EXTENDING SWD INTO WRN OK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARCING SWWD INTO SERN
   CO...AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL INTO NERN
   NEB. TEMPERATURES WITHIN A PRONOUNCED CLEAR SLOT HAVE WARMED INTO
   THE 60S ALONG/IMMEDIATELY E OF THE TRIPLE POINT AND STATIONARY
   FRONT...AND ARE JUXTAPOSED WITH A NARROW ZONE OF LOW 50S DEWPOINTS.
   SURFACE HEATING HAS AIDED IN AN AXIS OF STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES/ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION SPREADING NEWD FROM SWRN
   KS INTO S-CNTRL NEB...AND IS PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
   DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE AREA.
   
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OUT OF THE CUMULUS
   FIELD DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW AND STATIONARY FRONT
   GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD. 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -18C AND MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES FROM 6.5-7.0 C/KM...COLLOCATED WITH FAVORABLE ZONE OF
   SURFACE HEATING WILL AID IN MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000
   J/KG. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW 0-3 KM CAPE VALUES
   INCREASING TO 100-200 J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON. THE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
   BUOYANCY MAY AID IN A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS
   THAT CAN MAXIMIZE RESIDENCE TIME ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT WHERE
   LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. OTHERWISE...AN ISOLATED
   THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
   NARROW WARM SECTOR AIRMASS.
   
   ..GARNER/EDWARDS.. 03/09/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...
   
   LAT...LON   39289990 39460013 40130021 40849980 41439897 41469801
               40759752 39929802 39309883 39289990