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Mesoscale Discussion 260
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0260
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1228 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO....SRN IL...FAR WRN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 031728Z - 031830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND A
   TORNADO OR TWO IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE LATE
   AFTERNOON...PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM CLUSTER OF TSTMS
   APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL MO. A WW IS LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA WITHIN
   THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

   DISCUSSION...MODEST DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS SERN MO AND
   FAR SRN IL ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF AN EML PLUME...AS SFC
   TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED INTO THE LOW 70S F AND ARE YIELDING MLCAPE
   VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. UPSTREAM CLUSTER OF TSTMS ACROSS S-CNTRL
   MO CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS AND
   LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A W-E ORIENTED
   WARM FRONT ACROSS W-CNTRL MO AND SRN IL...BUT A COOLER BOUNDARY
   LAYER FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION MAY LIMIT TSTM INTENSITY INVOF THE
   FRONT FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. 

   LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING INTO THE
   AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH ACCELERATES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT
   PLAINS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTMS TO MAINTAIN
   INTENSITY INTO SERN MO AND FAR SRN IL INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
   EARLY EVENING. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR
   TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT CAN
   DEVELOP.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 04/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...

   LAT...LON   37528777 36648849 36528948 36589063 36869095 37539084
               38099019 38258952 38298898 38168807 37528777 

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Page last modified: April 03, 2014
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