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Mesoscale Discussion 260
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0260
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0611 PM CDT THU APR 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF AR...SERN MO...FAR WRN TN...NRN MS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 43...

   VALID 092311Z - 100015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 43 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF WATCHES 42...43...AND 44...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
   A FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AS WELL AS ONE OR TWO
   TORNADOES. DOWNSTREAM WW NEAR THE MID MS VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE
   NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF 2230Z...TWO REGIMES OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   CONTINUE IN THE WATCHES ACROSS THE REGION. ONE EXISTS IN AN AREA OF
   PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE/TROUGHING ACROSS NERN TX AND S-CNTRL AR.
   ANOTHER ZONE OF ACTIVITY IS PRESENT WITH A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG TO
   SEVERE TSTMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. STRONGER UPDRAFTS IN BOTH
   AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
   ORGANIZATION/ROTATION...AS THEY ARE AMIDST AN ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY APPROXIMATELY 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND
   MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. SOME TORNADIC THREAT WILL ALSO
   CONTINUE IN THE ERN AREA OF CONVECTION...OWING TO MORE BACKING OF
   SFC WINDS /AND RESULTANT INCREASED SRH/ AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
   CONFLUENCE LINE. CELLS IN THIS REGION HAVE BEEN ORGANIZED IN
   MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES. AS
   SUCH...STORM-SCALE INTERFERENCE MAY TEMPER A GREATER TORNADIC
   THREAT. NONETHELESS...THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WWS
   42/43/44.

   ADDITIONALLY...AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE
   MS RIVER...A DOWNSTREAM WATCH OR TWO WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF NERN AR/SERN MO/WRN KY. IN THIS REGION...STRONG SFC
   HEATING BENEATH RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
   VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. IN TURN...A RESULTANT THREAT OF LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY A FEW TORNADOES IS POSSIBLE.

   ..PICCA/HART.. 04/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   37138931 36728912 35858915 34468917 33749008 33549157
               33479197 33279264 33279353 33509434 34089447 35169450
               35639400 36469256 37269019 37188938 37138931 

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Page last modified: April 10, 2015
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