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Mesoscale Discussion 261
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0261
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1233 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...SW MO...NE OK...FAR NW AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 031733Z - 031900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS SE KS INTO NE
   OK. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ALL SEVERE
   HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS
   AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT
   HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AGITATED CU FIELD JUST
   AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT/DRYLINE ACROSS SE KS SWD INTO NE OK. 17Z
   MESOANALYSIS INDICATED LITTLE IF ANY CAP REMAINED ACROSS THIS
   REGION. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH MODIFIED 17Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
   AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
   TWO...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE. DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS /AT LEAST INITIALLY/. AS
   LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MIDLEVEL WAVE
   IMPINGES ON THE REGION...STORMS MAY TEND TOWARD UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
   A BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR QLCS STRUCTURES. EITHER WAY...LOW
   LEVEL SHEAR AND FORECAST HODOGRAPHS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING
   LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT.
   ADDITIONALLY...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5-8 DEG C PER KM
   AND SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL
   DEVELOPMENT.

   PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 0049 WOULD LIKELY BE REPLACED WITH A NEW
   WATCH TO ENCOMPASS THREAT AS STORMS MOVE EWD INTO SW MO/NW AR.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36379615 36949586 37689560 38149538 38409491 38489449
               38519434 38519375 38389318 37939291 37319275 36669292
               36569297 35569367 35219416 35029511 35119608 35299649
               35509661 35909648 36379615 

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Page last modified: April 03, 2014
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