MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0262
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0541 PM CST SAT MAR 09 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/N CNTRL TX INTO ERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 49...
   
   VALID 092341Z - 100115Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 49
   CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...STORMS WITH RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
   EVENING...MAINLY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF NORTHERN
   AND CENTRAL TEXAS.  ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE
   DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX THROUGH THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME...PERHAPS
   ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...IN
   ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.
   
   DISCUSSION...ONGOING NARROW SQUALL LINE IS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH THE
   LEADING EDGE OF 700 MB COOLING...EXTENDING WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
   DRYLINE...EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWARD THROUGH
   NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...INTO ITS INTERSECTION WITH THE DRY LINE ACROSS
   THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION.  NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER HAS REMAINED COOLER AND MORE STABLE...WHICH PROBABLY WILL
   CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  THE LATEST RAPID
   REFRESH SUGGESTS THAT BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE REMAINS MAXIMIZED
   IN A CORRIDOR JUST AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...NEAR THE DALLAS/FORTH
   METROPLEX SOUTHWARD TO THE BOUNDARY INTERSECTION...NORTH OF
   JUNCTION.  THIS COINCIDES WITH A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE MIXED LAYER
   CAPE /1000 TO 1500 J PER KG/...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR BENEATH 50-70 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...WHICH WILL REMAIN
   SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN THE EVOLVING LINE. 
   EVENTUALLY...CONSOLIDATING COLD POOLS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN
   INCREASING THREAT FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  BUT THE LACK
   OF A MORE PRONOUNCED WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE MID/UPPER FLOW
   SUGGESTS EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LINE WILL BE SLOW...AT LEAST
   INTO THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/09/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
   
   LAT...LON   31389921 32149845 33059747 34149676 35379631 35809596
               35729516 35109507 32239682 30939845 30249935 30670005
               31389921