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Mesoscale Discussion 262
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0262
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0702 PM CDT THU APR 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN OH AND NRN WV

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 40...

   VALID 100002Z - 100200Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 40
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A MARGINAL LARGE HAIL REPORT OR
   ISOLATED WIND GUST ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF WW 40. HOWEVER...THE
   SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH SOME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
   NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF WW 40. WHILE MESH/DUAL-POL DATA SUGGEST ONLY
   A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH THESE CELLS...W/SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS
   CONTINUING TO SUPPORT BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40-45 KTS.
   THEREFORE...DESPITE THE RELATIVELY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT...AND INCREASING CINH ASSOCIATED WITH BL
   STABILIZATION...UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION /EVIDENT IN MRMS ROTATION
   TRACKS AND REGIONAL WSR-88D DATA/ WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL THREAT FOR
   A SEVERE HAIL REPORT OR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST. HOWEVER...THIS
   THREAT WILL DIMINISH FURTHER AS THE CELLS TRACK NEWD INTO A LESS
   FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...AND WITH THE LOSS OF
   INSOLATION.

   ..PICCA.. 04/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...RLX...ILN...

   LAT...LON   38488202 38728265 39378361 39708351 39958221 39538068
               39207932 38877947 38378126 38488202 

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Page last modified: April 10, 2015
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