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Mesoscale Discussion 262
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0262
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0146 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE OK...NE TX...SW AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 031846Z - 032015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING TO INITIATE TO THE NW OF THE
   DALLAS-FT. WORTH METROPLEX AS OF 1830Z. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP SOUTHWARD NEAR THE EWD ADVANCING DRYLINE AND MOVE TO THE
   E/NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LARGE...DAMAGING HAIL AND STRONG WIND
   GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE
   RULED OUT.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS TO HAVE OCCURRED JUST TO
   THE NW OF DFW NEAR THE DRYLINE. TCU WAS EVIDENT ALONG THE LENGTH OF
   THE DRYLINE FROM NEAR ADM IN OKLAHOMA SWD TOWARD SEP. STRONG SFC
   HEATING HAS LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
   MID 60S DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING FOR THE WEAKENING OF THE CAP FURTHER TO
   THE E ACROSS NE TX AND SE OK. HERE...SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000
   J/KG OR HIGHER COMBINED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT
   IN VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR
   VERY LARGE...DAMAGING HAIL INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   WILL FAVOR DISCRETE ROTATING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
   WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW-END TORNADO THREAT AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
   GIVEN MOIST LOW LEVELS AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. AS STORMS MOVE
   E/NE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A QLCS STRUCTURE IS POSSIBLE TOWARD
   EVENING.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...

   LAT...LON   32379418 31719486 31049586 30749657 30699716 30779763
               30989794 31359809 31699806 32349793 32839782 33049774
               34009716 34489693 34999667 35269616 35419552 35449502
               35309403 34949359 34439338 33899346 33499352 33089372
               32829392 32379418 

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Page last modified: April 03, 2014
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