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Mesoscale Discussion 262
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0262
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0252 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SE TX.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 240752Z - 241015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL STG-SVR GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FROM
   CLUSTERS OF TSTMS MOVING EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA DURING PRE-DAWN
   HOURS.  WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM...BUT CONVECTIVE/COLD-POOL
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY UPSCALE ORGANIZATION/
   INTENSIFICATION TO THE CONTRARY.

   DISCUSSION...BEST-ORGANIZED SMALL-SCALE COLD POOL AND POTENTIAL FOR
   DAMAGING GUSTS APPEAR TO BE WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EWD OUT OF AUS...
   WHERE 58-KT GUST WAS MEASURED AT 707Z.  OTHER CONVECTION NEAR SAT
   ALSO MAY PRODUCE MRGL-SVR HAIL AND LOCALLY STG/DAMAGING GUSTS WHILE
   MOVING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND S OF I-10 DURING NEXT FEW
   HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY OUTFLOW
   FROM AUS-AREA COMPLEX.  MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS BEHIND
   SHALLOW...PREFRONTAL...OUTFLOW/WIND-SHIFT BOUNDARIES...WHICH WILL
   TEND TO AUGMENT SFC STATIC STABILITY AND LIMIT ACCESS TO UNMODIFIED
   WARM-SECTOR AIR WHERE MID-UPPER 60S F SFC DEW POINTS ARE COMMON. 
   ALSO...OUTFLOW/WIND-SHIFT LINES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VEERED
   PRECONVECTIVE FLOW AND RELATED REDUCTION IN STORM-RELATIVE NEAR-SFC
   WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.  

   STILL...FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH INITIALLY PREFRONTAL TSTMS IN
   THIS CORRIDOR...PERHAPS REINFORCED FROM REAR BY FRONTAL CAA WEDGE
   WITH TIME...MAY HELP CONVECTION TO PERSIST DEEPER THAN INDICATED BY
   OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED CINH FIELDS ALONE...INTO MORE STRONGLY CAPPED
   ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SE TX.  500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE SHOULD BE COMMON IN
   PRECONVECTIVE SETTING...AMIDST 30-45-KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. 
   MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT DO NOT APPEAR CONVECTIVELY MODULATED
   ALSO INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL COOLING AROUND 700 MB TIMED CLOSE TO
   EXTRAPOLATED ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION AT VARIOUS LOCALES ACROSS
   DISCUSSION AREA.

   ..EDWARDS/DIAL.. 03/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   28779929 29549764 30809624 30869541 30779426 29799416
               29599425 29449465 29319472 28899530 28519614 28369638
               28309644 28069684 28499832 28689911 28779929 

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Page last modified: March 24, 2016
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