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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0262
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0541 PM CST SAT MAR 09 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/N CNTRL TX INTO ERN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 49...
VALID 092341Z - 100115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 49
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STORMS WITH RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE
DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX THROUGH THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME...PERHAPS
ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.
DISCUSSION...ONGOING NARROW SQUALL LINE IS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF 700 MB COOLING...EXTENDING WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
DRYLINE...EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWARD THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...INTO ITS INTERSECTION WITH THE DRY LINE ACROSS
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION. NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...THE BOUNDARY
LAYER HAS REMAINED COOLER AND MORE STABLE...WHICH PROBABLY WILL
CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE LATEST RAPID
REFRESH SUGGESTS THAT BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE REMAINS MAXIMIZED
IN A CORRIDOR JUST AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...NEAR THE DALLAS/FORTH
METROPLEX SOUTHWARD TO THE BOUNDARY INTERSECTION...NORTH OF
JUNCTION. THIS COINCIDES WITH A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE MIXED LAYER
CAPE /1000 TO 1500 J PER KG/...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR BENEATH 50-70 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...WHICH WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN THE EVOLVING LINE.
EVENTUALLY...CONSOLIDATING COLD POOLS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BUT THE LACK
OF A MORE PRONOUNCED WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE MID/UPPER FLOW
SUGGESTS EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LINE WILL BE SLOW...AT LEAST
INTO THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME.
..KERR.. 03/09/2013
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 31389921 32149845 33059747 34149676 35379631 35809596
35729516 35109507 32239682 30939845 30249935 30670005
31389921
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