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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0262
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 180006Z - 180130Z
BROKEN BAND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION -- INCLUDING A FEW STG-SVR
TSTMS -- MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTS APCHG 50 KT SVR CRITERIA FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. 41 KT GUST WAS MEASURED AT FFO AT 2325Z.
DURATION/COVERAGE OF THREAT APPEARS TOO SMALL FOR WW. BRIEF TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AMIDST VERY STRONG AMBIENT/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR 70-80 KT.
ONE TSTM WITHIN THIS LINE HAS EVOLVED QUICKLY INTO A MINI-SUPERCELL
AND MAY PERSIST NEWD TOWARD MFD AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING. AIR MASS
ACROSS THIS REGION APPEARS WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY
AOB 300 J/KG...ROOTED MOSTLY ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. ALTHOUGH MODIFIED
RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS ARE ROOTED ABOVE
SFC...NEAR NEUTRAL INSTABILITY IN BOUNDARY LAYER MAY NOT PRECLUDE
VERTICAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES IN INDIVIDUAL/ROTATING TSTMS FROM
FORCING SURFACE AIR UPWARD FOR SHORT PERIODS. PRIND THREAT WILL
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AFTER 0100Z...WHEN SFC DIABATIC COOLING
FURTHER STABILIZES LOWEST PORTION OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE.
..EDWARDS.. 02/18/2008
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...
38928422 39958381 40718323 41268221 40968204 39998271
39068369
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