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Mesoscale Discussion 263
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0263
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SW/CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 031930Z - 032100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
   DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF SW/CNTRL TX. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST
   WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN LOW
   LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
   EDWARDS PLATEAU. LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT
   SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE /2000+ J PER KG
   MUCAPE/ AND MOIST /MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS/ DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS
   WITH STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
   AND STRONG DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS. GIVEN EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE...A
   WW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMMEDIATELY NEEDED BUT TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29820195 30640143 31090085 31440029 31460012 31889911
               31779853 31219801 30649789 30019800 29279867 28549956
               28240030 28830065 29320107 29660156 29820195 

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Page last modified: April 03, 2014
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