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Mesoscale Discussion 264
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0264
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0317 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO...FAR W-CNTRL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 032017Z - 032115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...A FEW DMGG WIND GUSTS AND
   POSSIBLY A TORNADO MAY ACCOMPANY A RETREATING WARM FRONT INTO THE
   EARLY EVENING. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...20Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A RETREATING WARM FRONT
   EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW NEAR MKC TO JUST N OF SZL AND COU. A
   CLUSTER OF TSTMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED INVOF THE WARM FRONT IS
   EXHIBITING THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL /SOME SVR/ PER WDSS-2 MESH
   ALGORITHM. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BY A COOL BOUNDARY LAYER OWING TO
   ONGOING PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER...BUT PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES EXTENDS NEAR/TO THE N OF THE WARM FRONT AND WILL ENHANCE
   THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION.
   GOLFBALL-SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED AT 1959Z WITH AN ELEVATED TSTM OVER
   HOWARD COUNTY MO. THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS AND A
   TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY TSTMS ANCHORED ALONG THE
   WARM FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD. HOWEVER...IT IS UNCERTAIN
   WHETHER THE COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT INTO THE EVENING WILL
   BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WW...AND TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 04/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39699337 40169248 40149173 40079107 39869069 39269074
               39099090 38869223 38839319 38849336 39229361 39699337 

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Page last modified: April 03, 2014
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