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Mesoscale Discussion 265
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0265
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0834 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

   Areas affected...northern Florida through southeast Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 151334Z - 151500Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms have shown an increase in organization and
   intensity during the past hour and might remain capable of damaging
   wind and a couple of tornadoes through the morning. Trends are being
   monitored for a watch.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have recently increased in organization and
   intensity from southwest GA into northwest FL and this might be in
   part to the influence of an MCV that is moving northeast through
   southwest GA. The downstream boundary layer is moist with middle to
   upper 60s F dewpoints, and some cloud breaks will allow further
   boundary layer destabilization this morning. However very weak lapse
   rates and the presence of a mid-level inversion remains a limiting
   factor. Nevertheless, storms are embedded within very strong
   low-level and deep-layer shear profiles supporting potential for
   embedded bowing structures and mesovortices. Further destabilization
   of the boundary layer might be sufficient for a sustained severe
   threat through the morning.

   ..Dial/Guyer.. 04/15/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29598324 30958309 31858319 32468275 32228156 31388154
               30518167 29658223 29598324 

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Page last modified: April 15, 2018
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