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Mesoscale Discussion 265
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0265
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1010 PM CST SAT MAR 09 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND ADJACENT RIO
   GRANDE VALLEY THRU THE HILL COUNTRY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 49...50...
   
   VALID 100410Z - 100545Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   49...50...CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 49 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
   AT 05Z.  A NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.  THE SEVERE WEATHER
   THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WW 50 THROUGH AT LEAST THE
   06-08Z TIME FRAME.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST
   STORMS...ALONG WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   DISCUSSION...NEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE FORMED AND DEVELOPED
   SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRY LINE AS FAR AS THE DEL RIO AREA DURING THE
   PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  HOWEVER...AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLATEAU
   REGION...CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
   HOLD FIRM OVER MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.  SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF
   CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STALL...WITH ACTIVITY TENDING TO DEVELOP
   EASTWARD WITHIN A ZONE OF ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTHERN
   PERIPHERY OF THE CAP.  20-30 KT LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OF MOIST AIR WITH
   MODERATELY LARGE CAPE PROBABLY WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST CURRENT
   INTENSITY OF ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. 
   IT STILL APPEARS THAT A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL WITH STRONG GUSTY
   WINDS COULD FORM...PERHAPS AFFECTING AREAS NEAR/WEST THROUGH NORTH
   OF SAN ANTONIO BY 06-07Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/10/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...
   
   LAT...LON   29160039 29609995 30049959 30269901 30499850 30359787
               29719787 29049883 28879970 29160039 
   
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Page last modified: March 10, 2013
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