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| Mesoscale Discussion 265 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0265
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 PM CST SAT MAR 09 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND ADJACENT RIO
GRANDE VALLEY THRU THE HILL COUNTRY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 49...50...
VALID 100410Z - 100545Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
49...50...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 49 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 05Z. A NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WW 50 THROUGH AT LEAST THE
06-08Z TIME FRAME. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST
STORMS...ALONG WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION...NEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE FORMED AND DEVELOPED
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRY LINE AS FAR AS THE DEL RIO AREA DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLATEAU
REGION...CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
HOLD FIRM OVER MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STALL...WITH ACTIVITY TENDING TO DEVELOP
EASTWARD WITHIN A ZONE OF ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CAP. 20-30 KT LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OF MOIST AIR WITH
MODERATELY LARGE CAPE PROBABLY WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST CURRENT
INTENSITY OF ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS COULD FORM...PERHAPS AFFECTING AREAS NEAR/WEST THROUGH NORTH
OF SAN ANTONIO BY 06-07Z.
..KERR.. 03/10/2013
ATTN...WFO...EWX...
LAT...LON 29160039 29609995 30049959 30269901 30499850 30359787
29719787 29049883 28879970 29160039
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