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| Mesoscale Discussion 266 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0266
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 AM CST SUN MAR 10 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 50...
VALID 100733Z - 100830Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 50
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A SVR WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS /THROUGH 09Z/ ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL TX /SERN PORTION
OF WW 50/. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...LOCAL WFO TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
EXTENSIONS MAY BE NEEDED. STRONGEST STORM OR TWO WILL TEND TO POSE A
THREAT FOR HAIL APPROACHING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND/OR A BRIEF STRONG
WIND GUST.
DISCUSSION...AT 0720Z...REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED THE STRONGEST STORM CLUSTER WAS LOCATED OVER BEXAR...COMAL
AND FAR WRN GUADALUPE COUNTIES TX...WHILE STORMS ACROSS THE REST OF
WW 50 TO THE NE AND SW OF THIS CLUSTER HAS GENERALLY WEAKENED. SREF
AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE ONGOING STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS THE INSTABILITY WEAKENS. THIS
TREND APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY GIVEN THE OVERALL DECREASING TREND IN
STORM INTENSITIES. RECENT STORM REPORTS FROM BEXAR COUNTY INDICATED
SUB-SVR HAIL AND A SUB-SVR WIND GUST AT KSAT /38 KT AT 0706Z/.
THESE REPORTS SUGGEST SURFACE BASED INHIBITION HAS BECOME
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
..PETERS.. 03/10/2013
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 29109902 29129941 29649928 30009859 30569789 31569717
32039683 32239630 31709575 31209646 30669664 30349686
29949657 29619691 29329790 29079866 29109902
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