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Mesoscale Discussion 266
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0266
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0827 PM CDT THU APR 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LOWER MI AND NORTHERN INDIANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 100127Z - 100300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LOWER MI AND EVENTUALLY
   NORTHERN INDIANA THROUGH LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT. A WATCH MAY
   BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...EARLIER DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO CONGEAL/GROW
   UPSCALE WITH A QUASI-LINEAR MODE INCREASINGLY PREVALENT APPROACHING
   THE LAKE MI VICINITY AS OF 115Z. THESE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE STEADY DEEPENING OF AN UPSTREAM
   SURFACE LOW TOWARD/ACROSS LAKE MI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WHILE A
   MODESTLY MOIST AIR MASS EXISTS IN THE WARM SECTOR TO THE SOUTH OF A
   WARM FRONT. WARM SECTOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS HAVE SHOWN A
   COOLING/DRYING TREND ACROSS LOWER MI...BUT AMPLE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE LAKE-CROSSING
   PERSISTENCE OF HIGHLY ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
   LOWER MI AND EVENTUALLY FAR NORTHERN INDIANA.

   ..GUYER/HART.. 04/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   43168695 44278618 44138485 43378416 42258411 41088554
               40868681 42408650 43168695 

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Page last modified: April 10, 2015
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