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| Mesoscale Discussion 267 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0267
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN LA...A SMALL PART OF ERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 101250Z - 101345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR WIND THREAT WILL EXIST THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY. OWING TO THE ANTICIPATED SPORADIC NATURE OF
ANY SVR THREAT...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...EMBEDDED UPDRAFTS HAVE TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENED ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/SQUALL LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ARKLATEX SWWD
TOWARD THE HOUSTON AREA. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN LIES ACROSS
POLK COUNTY TX DURING THE NEXT 15 MINUTES OR SO. HOWEVER...THE 12Z
LCH RAOB SUGGESTS THAT SUBSTANTIAL CINH WITHIN THE 800-600-MB LAYER
WILL LIKELY IMPEDE UPDRAFT VIGOR/DEPTH AS CONVECTION PROGRESSES EWD
TOWARD SWRN LA. WHILE 0-1-KM SRH OF AROUND 300 M2/S2 PER THE 12Z LCH
RAOB WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL LINE-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES...WITH A
LOCALIZED/BRIEF THREAT FOR SVR WINDS...THE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED/SPORADIC. AS SUCH...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS
UNLIKELY.
..COHEN/HART.. 03/10/2013
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 31159475 31479410 31529328 31079287 30259283 30029374
30089528 31159475
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