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Mesoscale Discussion 268
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0268
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0703 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TX AND SRN OK

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 52...

   VALID 040003Z - 040100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 52 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SVR STORMS PRODUCING VERY LARGE
   HAIL...A TORNADO THREAT AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
   MID EVENING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF WW 52...FROM CENTRAL AND NORTH
   CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OK.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED STORMS CONTINUING
   TO DEVELOP IN WISE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TX AT THE INTERSECTION OF
   A DRY LINE AND SWD MOVING WIND SHIFT IN THAT AREA.  STORMS SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO FORM NNEWD ALONG THE DRY LINE EXTENDING THROUGH COOKE
   COUNTY TX TO HUGHES COUNTY OK.  MODERATE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
   /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J PER KG/ EXTENDED FROM SERN OK THROUGH NORTH
   CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL TX.  THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
   AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PER 00Z FWD SOUNDING WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   UP TO 45-55 KT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS FROM CENTRAL TX INTO
   SOUTH CENTRAL OK.

   FARTHER S...STORMS LOCATED OVER ERATH AND HAMILTON COUNTIES WILL
   CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGLY UNSTABLE/SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT MAINTAINING A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS.

   MEANWHILE...THE AIR MASS OVER NERN TX AND FAR SERN OK APPEARS TO BE
   SOMEWHAT HOSTILE TO MAINTAINING SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND AN ATTENDANT
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS STORMS THAT HAVE TRACKED INTO THIS PART OF
   WW 52 DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY.

   ..PETERS.. 04/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30999841 31499878 32379845 33059792 33689737 34289692
               34899661 35259626 35269599 35199562 34779535 34649528
               34509495 34509451 34209444 34319397 34009373 33789317
               33469305 33029373 32469425 31719501 31469560 31079589
               30709648 30459722 30869776 30999841 

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Page last modified: April 04, 2014
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