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Mesoscale Discussion 268
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0268
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0455 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 242155Z - 250030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...NARROW...SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDS CROSSING PARTS OF THE
   MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REGION TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE WILL HAVE
   THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY THIS
   EVENING. AN ISOLATED DMGG WING GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NECESSARY.

   DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
   SEGMENTS ORIENTED NE/SW FROM NEAR PORT CLINTON OHIO TO DAYTON TO
   CINCINNATI TO NEAR LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
   TO SPREAD EWD/NEWD THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE DEEP SFC LOW PRESSURE
   ANALYZED OVER SRN LOWER MI MOVES NEWD. CG LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE
   ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM THE MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO SWD TO THE
   VICINITY OF THE OHIO RIVER...BUT OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING
   ACCOMPANIES THIS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

   VWPS AT WILMINGTON AND CLEVELAND OHIO INDICATE STRONG LOW-LEVEL 
   FLOW -- ON THE ORDER OF 45-60 KT IN THE 1-2-KM-AGL LAYER. THIS
   HIGH-MOMENTUM AIR WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE PARTLY MANIFESTED AT
   THE SFC OWING TO VERTICAL MOMENTUM TRANSPORT IN THE CONVECTIVE
   SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY MESO-GAMMA-SCALE
   CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED THEREIN. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY
   ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING ACROSS OHIO AND
   NORTHERN KENTUCKY -- CROSSING A CORRIDOR FROM COLUMBUS TO CLEVELAND
   TO AKRON-CANTON IN THE 0030Z-0300Z TIME FRAME. AS THIS ACTIVITY
   ENCOUNTERS A SLIGHTLY MORE-STRONGLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN PARTS OF
   ERN OHIO...CONVECTIVE PROCESSES MAY AUGMENT ANTECEDENT TURBULENT
   KINETIC ENERGY FLUXES AMIDST THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO ENHANCE
   SFC WIND GUSTS.

   REGARDLESS...THE OVERALL SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE LARGELY
   MITIGATED BY A DEARTH OF BUOYANCY OWING TO THE PAUCITY OF RETURN
   MOISTURE...POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND WIDESPREAD
   CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION STUNTING DIURNAL HEATING. GAINS IN
   BOUNDARY-LAYER STATIC STABILITY WITH NIGHTFALL WILL SERVE TO CURTAIL
   THE TEMPORAL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND
   GUSTS.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 03/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   38528500 39228459 41118260 41788094 41138053 38988225
               38208393 38528500 

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