MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0269
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0724 PM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...W-CNTRL AND N-CNTRL WI
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 110024Z - 110530Z
   
   SUMMARY...AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND INTO PARTS OF SERN
   MN AND CNTRL WI AS A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE PROGRESSES NEWD. HOURLY
   SNOWFALL RATES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1-1.5 INCH ACROSS SERN MN
   BY 02Z AND INTO N-CNTRL WI BY 05Z.
   
   DISCUSSION...A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WITHIN A
   DEFORMATION ZONE N OF A CLOSED MID-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL EXPAND NWD
   INTO PORTIONS OF SERN MN AND W-CNTRL WI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. A
   PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT /NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ WAS ADVANCING NWD
   ACROSS WRN IL...BUT IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN E OF THE
   HIGHLIGHTED AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NEWD PROGRESSING LOW. SFC
   OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS AREA ARE CURRENTLY IN
   THE LOW-MID 30S...BUT THE COMBINATION OF MODEST WET-BULB AND DYNAMIC
   COLUMNAR COOLING...ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA...WILL RESULT IN
   CONDITIONS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ACCUMULATING
   SNOWFALL. VERTICAL ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITHIN A LAYER OF
   ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE WRN BRANCH OF A WARM CONVEYOR
   BELT...WHICH WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS SRN WI INTO SERN MN. 
   
   SHORT-TERM MODEL OUTPUT /INCLUDING 22Z RAP AND 21Z WRF-HRRR/ AND
   OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL SPREAD INTO FAR
   SERN MN BY 02Z...AND CONTINUE SPREADING NEWD INTO N-CNTRL WI BY 05Z.
   SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 1-1.5 INCH PER HR ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
   HIGHER RATES WITHIN EMBEDDED SNOW BANDS.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 03/11/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
   
   LAT...LON   45248870 44348954 43659065 43579121 43619179 43609304
               44229283 44889195 45559103 45749034 45818965 45658876
               45248870