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Mesoscale Discussion 269
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0269
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0718 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...TEXAS HILL COUNTRY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 040018Z - 040115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY STRENGTHEN
   SOME THIS EVENING ALONG AND W OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL TX. 
   AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...EARLIER HIGH-BASED STORMS OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
   ALONG THE DRYLINE ARE NOW BEGINNING TO ENCOUNTER THE RICHER
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL/S CENTRAL...MAINLY
   E-SE OF THE ESCARPMENT.  MODERATE-STRONG BUOYANCY /MLCAPE UP TO 3000
   J PER KG/ AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 50 KT WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR
   ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.  THE PRIMARY
   UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT /WITH
   THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE N OF THIS AREA/ VERSUS A GRADUAL
   INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AFTER SUNSET ACROSS S CENTRAL TX. 
   AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH STORM
   COVERAGE/PERSISTENCE TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.  THE
   SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL EXTENDED SWWD INTO S CENTRAL TX WITH THE 01Z
   UPDATE.

   ..THOMPSON.. 04/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30939854 31009807 30709730 30369715 30109721 29559792
               29219867 29299956 29540001 29730008 30019992 30459904
               30739882 30939854 

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Page last modified: April 04, 2014
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