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Mesoscale Discussion 270
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0270
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0726 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL IL...E CNTRL THRU S CNTRL MO...NRN
   AR

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 53...

   VALID 040026Z - 040200Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 53 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH ISOLATED
   DISCRETE STORMS FORMING AHEAD OF IT WILL POSE A RISK FOR LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH 02-04Z.

   DISCUSSION...CONTINUED UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION INTO A MORE
   SUBSTANTIVE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
   REGION THROUGH 02-04Z...WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A 1000 MB SURFACE
   LOW AS IT MIGRATES FROM WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI TOWARD SOUTHEAST IOWA.
   THIS IS BEING AIDED BY MID/UPPER FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   DOWNSTREAM OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST
   NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY REGION.

   MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE
   A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY TO THE
   NORTH OF A LINGERING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY EARLY
   DAY STORMS...NOW WEST AND SOUTH OF ST. LOUIS INTO THE LOWER OHIO
   VALLEY.  HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BOUNDARY COULD RETREAT
   SOME BACK TO THE NORTHEAST...TOWARD THE ST. LOUIS AREA.  AND
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG AND TO THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT
   MAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ISOLATED
   TORNADOES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING CONVECTIVE LINE
   OVERSPREADING IT.

   OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BENEATH 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY 850 FLOW
   ALONG/AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE TO THE SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY...ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS...IS
   PROBABLY STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. 
   ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE... PARTICULARLY IN DISCRETE
   STORM DEVELOPMENT NOW OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE LINE.

   ..KERR.. 04/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   38439157 39269060 39508873 38398909 36679058 36239174
               35909292 35989418 36879267 38439157 

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Page last modified: April 04, 2014
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