Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 270
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 270 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0270
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0836 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/ERN FLORIDA PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 250136Z - 250400Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG-TSTM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
   HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA. WHILE AN
   ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SVR TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WW ISSUANCE
   WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS A LOW-LATITUDE
   MID/HIGH-LEVEL SPEED MAX ADVANCING ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF OF
   MEXICO TO FL...WITH EXIT-REGION ASCENT MAINTAINING DIURNALLY
   ENHANCED CONVECTION. THE FINAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY
   INDICATED INLAND CU BECOMING INCREASINGLY AGITATED IMMEDIATELY PRIOR
   TO DUSK...AS THE STRENGTHENING DEEP ASCENT OVERSPREAD AN AIR MASS
   CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIMITED MLCINH. THE
   00Z RAOBS AT MIAMI AND TAMPA SAMPLED MODERATE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
   WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...WITH AMBIENT
   MOISTURE SLOWING NOCTURNAL GAINS IN MLCINH WHILE LOW-LEVEL WAA
   CONTINUES. TSTMS -- PRESENTLY MOST INTENSE FROM VOLUSIA TO
   POLK/OSCEOLA COUNTIES -- WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EWD/NEWD ACROSS THE
   FL PENINSULA TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
   AS DEEP ASCENT CONTINUES. THE VWP AT MLB IS SAMPLING AMPLE DEEP
   SHEAR -- E.G. AROUND 50-60 KT IN THE 0-6-KM LAYER -- THAT MAY
   SUSTAIN BROAD STORM-SCALE CIRCULATIONS WHICH HAVE ALREADY BEEN
   OBSERVED WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY. PRECIPITATION-LOADING PROCESSES MAY
   SUPPORT A DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO. OVERALL WEAK FLOW IN THE 1-2-KM
   LAYER AND FREQUENT CELL INTERACTIONS WILL GREATLY MITIGATE THE
   TORNADO POTENTIAL DESPITE A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE IN THE
   LOW LEVELS.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 03/25/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   27738171 28808155 29228105 28618063 27638052 27428146
               27738171 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: March 25, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities