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Mesoscale Discussion 270
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0270
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1156 PM CDT THU APR 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 51...

   VALID 100456Z - 100630Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 51
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
   EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN LOWER MI AS
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 51 CONTINUES.

   DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED/SOMEWHAT FRAGMENTED SQUALL
   LINE /INCLUDING SOME EMBEDDED BOWS/ CONTINUES TO MAKE A STEADY
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS LOWER MI AS OF 0445Z. WHILE
   OVERALL BUOYANCY IS MODEST WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...IT SHOULD BE
   NOTED THAT RAP RUNS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS APPEAR TO BE ERRONEOUSLY
   /VIA TOO MUCH DRY AIR/ IMPACTING SPC MESOANALYSIS WITH RESULTANT
   NEAR-ZERO DEPICTIONS OF BUOYANCY. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...ESPECIALLY
   GIVEN THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST
   FEW HOURS...MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE LIKELY REMAINS GENERALLY NEAR 1000
   J/KG IN CONTRAST TO CURRENT MESOANALYSIS. AIDED BY 50-70 KT WINDS
   DEPICTED WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM VIA LOWER MI WSR-88D VWP DATA...A
   WELL-ORGANIZED LINEAR MODE WITH EMBEDDED BOWS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
   TO POSE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

   ..GUYER.. 04/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   42278637 43428521 44038418 43478287 42688303 42168448
               42088596 42278637 

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Page last modified: April 10, 2015
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