MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0271
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0241 PM CDT SUN MAR 17 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...EXTREME SERN CO...W-CNTRL TX...TX/OK
   PANHANDLES
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 171941Z - 172115Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROGRESS EWD THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING ACROSS ERN NM...EXTREME SERN CO...W-CNTRL TX...AND THE
   TX/OK PANHANDLES. A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE
   WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 19Z SHOWS A SURFACE LEE TROUGH/WIND
   SHIFT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
   ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE WARMING INTO THE 60S AND 70S...BUT
   DEWPOINTS ARE LOW /20S AND 30S/ DUE TO A RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE.
   DESPITE THE VERY MARGINAL MOISTURE...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
   STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AIDING IN MUCAPE VALUES
   LOCALLY UP TO 500 J/KG. THIS BUOYANCY IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED HIGH
   BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER CNTRL NM AS A PLUME OF ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER IMPULSE OVER WRN NM ADVANCES ACROSS A WELL
   MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. DEEP-LAYER...MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW IS
   FAVORABLE FOR FAST MOVING HIGH BASED STORMS...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO
   ADVANCE ACROSS W-CNTRL TX AND THE PANHANDLES AS THE SURFACE WIND
   SHIFT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE REGION.
   THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY COMBINED WITH THE DRY
   STRONGLY MIXED LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..GARNER/WEISS.. 03/17/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...
   
   LAT...LON   35410032 33980014 32660093 32210259 33320434 35730486
               37070413 37280253 35410032