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Mesoscale Discussion 271
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0271
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1253 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS / NWRN AL / SRN MIDDLE TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 100553Z - 100800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLD WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
   NRN MS AND EVENTUALLY AREAS DOWNSTREAM INTO PARTS OF NWRN AL AND SRN
   MIDDLE TN.  IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO FURTHER ORGANIZE...A TORNADO IS
   ALSO POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS INTENSIFYING STORMS ACROSS NRN MS ON
   THE SRN END OF A CONVECTIVE RAIN SHIELD EXTENDING FROM NRN MS INTO
   WRN TN.  STORMS ALSO APPEAR TO BE INTENSIFYING NEAR THE MS RIVER 40
   MI S MEM.  KGWX SHOWS A VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE WITH
   HEIGHT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS.  THE INFLOW AIRMASS TO THE S OF THE STORM CLUSTER IN NRN
   MS IS CHARACTERIZED WITH LOWER 70S TEMPS AND MID 60S DEWPOINTS. 
   THESE SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG SBCAPE
   PER THE MODIFIED 00Z JAN RAOB.  

   MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A BELT OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL SWLY FLOW OVER
   THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  GIVEN THE STRONG WIND
   PROFILE AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
   EXISTING STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR LINE SEGMENTS
   POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. 
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE NEED FOR A TORNADO
   WATCH.

   ..SMITH/MEAD.. 04/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

   LAT...LON   34439065 35268845 35598729 35228679 34448699 33818839
               33979030 34439065 

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Page last modified: April 10, 2015
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