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Mesoscale Discussion 273
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0273
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1045 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF SERN OK...CENTRAL AND SRN AR...NWRN MS AND
   SWRN TN

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 53...

   VALID 040345Z - 040445Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 53 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT /INCLUDING TORNADO POTENTIAL/ IS
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
   PERIOD ACROSS SERN OK INTO CENTRAL/SRN AR AND REACH NWRN MS AND SWRN
   TN.  

   A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED FOR THE DISCUSSION
   AREA...AND WILL REPLACE THE SRN PART OF WW 53 THAT IS SCHEDULED TO
   EXPIRE AT 05Z.

   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED NEW STORMS HAD DEVELOPED
   OVER SRN AR WITHIN LOW LEVEL WAA...WHILE A LONG-LIVED CLUSTER OF
   STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD THROUGH FAR NERN TX.  ADDITIONAL STORMS
   RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER SERN OK WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT NOT YET
   CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THIS
   REGION.  

   WSR-88D VWP/S ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID SOUTH SHOWED
   STRENGTHENING SWLY 500 MB WINDS OF 55-65 KT ATOP A SSWLY 50 KT LLJ
   EXTENDING FROM LA INTO AR AND WRN/MIDDLE TN.  THESE TRENDS HAVE
   RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR /LARGER HODOGRAPH
   CURVATURE NOW OBSERVED AT THE LITTLE ROCK WSR-88D/ AND STRENGTHENING
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.
   MEANWHILE...THE AIR MASS HAS STABILIZED SOME...BUT REMAINS
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE FOR AN OVERNIGHT SEVERE WEATHER
   THREAT.  GIVEN THESE FACTORS...ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE INCLUDING TORNADOES...GIVEN THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR
   ALONG THE LLJ.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 04/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   34579493 35239459 35299300 35189162 35669119 35848845
               34768873 33608944 33019062 33049207 33339236 33439303
               33909354 34149391 34329429 34579493 

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Page last modified: April 04, 2014
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