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Mesoscale Discussion 273
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0273
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0154 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI / NWRN OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 100654Z - 100800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY MATERIALIZE BUT
   THIS RISK IS CONDITIONAL ON FURTHER STORM INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS
   OVER NERN IND AND LOWER MI.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW STORMS STRADDLING THE MI/IND
   BORDER IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING E ACROSS
   THE SRN GREAT LAKES.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW PLUME OF
   DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEG F TO THE E OF THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION AND
   TEMPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  AS THE INTENSE
   AND NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL WAVE CLOSES INTO A LOW BRIEFLY OVER
   THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO
   FOSTER THE POSSIBILITY FOR FURTHER STORM INTENSIFICATION.  THE KDTW
   VAD SHOWS A VERY STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WIND PROFILE.  THERE
   APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST SOME CONDITIONAL RISK FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS AND PERHAPS A NON-ZERO TORNADO RISK IF FURTHER STORM
   INTENSIFICATION CAN OCCUR.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
   THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   ..SMITH/MEAD.. 04/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   41828480 42848432 43238299 42828260 41828334 41388384
               41208445 41228478 41828480 

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Page last modified: April 10, 2015
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