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Mesoscale Discussion 274
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0274
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1140 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...SRN IND...WRN KY...NWRN TN AND
   NERN AR

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 55...

   VALID 040440Z - 040615Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 55 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT INTO
   THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF WW 55.  MEANWHILE...A TORNADO
   THREAT CONTINUES WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AN/OR INTERACT WITH
   THE ENVIRONMENT INVOF A STALLED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
   SERN MO...FAR SRN IL TO SWRN KY...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED.
    ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP
   AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF WW 55.

   DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THREE
   CLUSTERS OF TSTMS HAVE MERGED FROM SERN MO INTO THE LOWER OH
   VALLEY...WITH MOST OF THE STORMS LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF A
   STALLED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED
   ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF WW 55...WITH MUCAPE RANGING FROM 500-1000
   J/KG...AND MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL
   STRONG-SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH EWD EXTENT FOR THIS PORTION
   OF THE WW.  DESPITE THE DECREASE IN INSTABILITY...EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR OF 50-65 KT REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS...SUCH THAT STRONGER CORES WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE
   THREAT.  EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-400 M2/S2 PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INVOF
   THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SUGGESTS A TORNADO
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR SRN IL INTO WRN KY.  SIMILAR LOW LEVEL
   AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES EXTENDED SWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW
   55 WHERE MUCAPE IS GREATER THAN FARTHER N WITH VALUES RANGING FROM
   1000-1500 J/KG. TRENDS IN LIGHTNING DATA OVER NERN AR/ADJACENT SERN
   MO INDICATED A RECENT UPTICK IN STRIKES FOR THIS AREA...WHICH MAY BE
   INDICATIVE OF AN ATTENDANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ENCOUNTERING THE
   CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY.

   ..PETERS.. 04/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

   LAT...LON   35929133 37029025 38278884 38318843 38208679 37268685
               36618710 36678801 36188832 35738906 35638979 35459023
               35509100 35929133 

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Page last modified: April 04, 2014
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