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Mesoscale Discussion 274
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0274
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0152 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 261852Z - 262115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY A
   HAIL THREAT ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF CNTRL AND N-CNTRL FL. GIVEN EXPECTED SPARSE SEVERE COVERAGE...A
   WATCH MAY NOT BE WARRANTED.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OLD BOUNDARY ACROSS N CNTRL
   FL SEPARATING THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR TO THE S FROM THE
   PREVIOUSLY RAIN-COOLED AIR TO THE N...AND WITH ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE
   ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS ALSO NOTED FROM
   NEAR TAMPA BAY EWD TO NEAR FT. PIERCE. THIS TROUGH WAS ALSO ROUGHLY
   ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF CIRRUS/ANVIL BLOW OFF COURTESY OF STORMS TO
   THE WEST.

   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS BOTH THE W AND E COAST SEA
   BREEZE FRONTS SHIFTING INLAND...WITH FIELDS OF TOWERING CU INLAND.
   INSPECTION OF AREA SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEALS A
   RELATIVE WARM LAYER NEAR 700 MB WHICH IS LIKELY HAMPERING VERTICAL
   GROWTH TO THE LFC. HOWEVER...AS HEATING PERSISTS...AND SEA BREEZE
   BOUNDARIES ENHANCE LIFT...ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM. THE
   BEST AREA APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND N OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
   TROUGH...EXTENDING NWD TO THE OLD SFC FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN THE TWO
   SEA BREEZES. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS GIVEN COOL TEMPERATURES IN
   THE MIDLEVELS...AND SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG IN THE MID TO UPPER
   LEVELS. THIS COULD FAVOR SPORADIC LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
   STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 03/26/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   27848071 27568062 27338091 27248152 27438210 27838241
               28258255 29208250 29578204 29658157 29528134 29378125
               27848071 

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Page last modified: March 26, 2016
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