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Mesoscale Discussion 275
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0275
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0516 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OH / WRN WV / ERN KY / ERN TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 53...

   VALID 101016Z - 101115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 53
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CONTINUES TO
   THE EAST OF THE BROKEN SQUALL LINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OH
   VALLEY AND UPPER TN VALLEY BUT THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BECOME
   INCREASINGLY LOCALIZED.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FRACTURED PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE
   MOVING ENEWD AROUND 45-50 KT.  THE STRONG WIND FIELD IN PLACE WILL
   SUPPORT SOME POSSIBILITY FOR A STRONGER DOWNDRAFT TO BE CAPABLE OF
   STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST VIA MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. 
   NONETHELESS...IT APPEARS THE FAST ENEWD MOTION OF THE CONVECTIVE
   LINE WILL LARGELY OUTRUN THE ABILITY FOR THE AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE
   SUFFICIENTLY TO THE E OF THE EXISTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. 
   WHILE A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO IS POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM OF THE SEVERE
   WATCH TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE INCREASINGLY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF A POSSIBLE WIND DAMAGE
   THREAT.  THEREFORE AT THIS TIME...AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE WATCH IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED FOR ERN WV SWWD THROUGH SW VA AND FAR ERN TN.

   ..SMITH.. 04/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...OHX...

   LAT...LON   39308209 39378108 39118033 38848014 38148045 37278124
               36078287 35618380 35528493 37598376 39308209 

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Page last modified: April 10, 2015
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