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Mesoscale Discussion 275
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0275
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0208 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN GA AND S-CNTRL INTO COASTAL SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 261908Z - 262115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A VERY ISOLATED/MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...WITHIN BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
   IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS ERN GA IN THE VICINITY OF A REMNANT
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ACROSS THIS AREA...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
   DEPICTS A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CIRRUS CLOUDS THAT HAS ALLOWED SFC
   TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. PLENTIFUL
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 COMBINED
   WITH MODEST SFC HEATING AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF
   6.5-7.0 DEG C/KM HAS RESULTED IN MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THE
   MCD AREA. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND VWP ESTIMATES FROM KCLX AND
   KCAE SUGGEST LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT A
   VEERING WIND PROFILE COMBINED WITH 30-35 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
   WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE STRONGER CORES TO POSE A MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL THREAT THROUGH PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 03/26/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...

   LAT...LON   31468130 31438242 31648287 32298263 33188227 33538187
               33568087 32768040 32288040 31778097 31468130 

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Page last modified: March 26, 2016
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