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Mesoscale Discussion 276
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0276
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1255 AM CDT FRI APR 04 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN AR...NRN LA...NERN TX

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 56...

   VALID 040555Z - 040730Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 56 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SVR RISK CONTINUES ACROSS REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF
   TORNADO WATCH 56.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED INTO A MATURE MCS WITH A PRIMARY
   FORWARD PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT FROM S-CNTRL AR INTO N-CNTRL LA
   FEATURING 45-50 KT OF STORM MOTION. THIS COMPONENT WILL POSE THE
   GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS LINE-EMBEDDED
   MESOVORTICES WITH TORNADOES AS IT MOVES ACROSS ERN PARTS OF WW 56
   AND INTO RECENTLY ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 58. THE DOWNSHEAR AIR MASS
   REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL/DEEP SHEAR.

   MEANWHILE...THE MCS IS BACKBUILDING FARTHER W FROM NWRN LA INTO NERN
   TX. SPORADIC DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY
   VIA CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT...ESPECIALLY WITHIN SMALL BOWING
   SEGMENTS...GIVEN 40 KT OF 1 KM AGL FLOW SAMPLED BY SHV VWP. THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY EDGE SWD/SEWD AS THE 40-45 KT LLJ SUPPORTS
   PROPAGATION ALONG THE SRN FLANK OF AMALGAMATING AND EXPANDING COLD
   POOLS.

   AREAS BEHIND THE LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE ACCOMPANYING THE MCS WILL
   NO LONGER EXPERIENCE SVR POTENTIAL GIVEN ANTECEDENT OVERTURNING.

   ..COHEN.. 04/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32509621 32629575 32949368 33549275 34049256 33429217
               32429226 31979294 31779409 31999575 32509621 

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Page last modified: April 04, 2014
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