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Mesoscale Discussion 276
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0276
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1205 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 101705Z - 101830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST
   TSTMS TODAY.

   DISCUSSION...MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
   THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES.  WITHIN THIS
   FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAXIMA ARE PROPAGATING
   ACROSS THIS REGION.  OF PARTICULAR SIGNIFICANCE...LATEST
   SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE
   UPPER TX COAST.  THIS TRAILING FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
   CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM ACROSS LA/SRN MS.  AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES
   TO WARM/DEEPEN...SFC READINGS NEAR 80F SHOULD YIELD MLCAPE NEAR 1500
   J/KG.  LATEST THINKING IS MULTICELL UPDRAFTS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL
   BE THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
   MAIN THREAT.

   IF/UNTIL ONGOING CONVECTION ORGANIZES INTO MORE MEANINGFUL CLUSTERS
   THE PROSPECT FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
   50/50.

   ..DARROW/GRAMS.. 04/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   30289227 31478953 32808751 32348535 30798529 29808945
               29539225 30289227 

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Page last modified: April 10, 2015
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