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Mesoscale Discussion 276
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0276
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1001 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WESTERN NORTH
   TEXAS...AND VICINITY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 270301Z - 270530Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR
   IN THE 0330-0500Z TIME FRAME ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN TX PANHANDLE
   AND NERN TX SOUTH PLAINS. THEREAFTER...TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD
   EWD OVER PORTIONS OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION INTO THE OVERNIGHT
   HOURS...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...AND
   PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE ANTICIPATED ISOLATED NATURE
   OF THE SVR RISK IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...RAOBS AT 00Z SAMPLED STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER
   PORTIONS OF THE SRN GREAT PLAINS...WITH NORMAN AND AMARILLO
   SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-8 C/KM ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF OK AND NW TX. MEANWHILE...WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS
   A LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE EMERGING OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND
   OVERTAKING A SFC FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE TULSA AREA SWWD TO WRN N TX
   AND WWD ACROSS THE TX S PLAINS. THE INTERACTION OF IMPULSE-PRECEDING
   DCVA WITH BAROCLINICITY RELATED TO THE BOUNDARY IS YIELDING INTENSE
   FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND VICINITY. ASCENT
   ACCOMPANYING FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATIONS IS BEING AMPLIFIED WITHIN
   THE STEEP-LAPSE-RATE ENVIRONMENT...WITH A RESULTANT SHIELD OF
   PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AT PRESENT.
   ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE BECOMING DEFINED AT THE LEADING
   EDGE OF THIS SHIELD BETWEEN AMARILLO AND CHILDRESS...WITH CG
   LIGHTNING NOW OCCURRING WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

   AS THE STRONG ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD AND INTERCEPTS A
   NWD-EXTENDING PLUME OF POORLY MODIFIED RETURN MOISTURE OVER THE
   LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS -- E.G. SUPPORTING PW AROUND
   0.5-0.6 INCH PER GPS DATA -- A FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF TSTM
   INTENSIFICATION/DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE 0330-0500Z
   TIME FRAME. OFFSETTING THE OVERALL DEARTH OF RETURN MOISTURE...THE
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT MUCAPE -- ON THE
   ORDER OF 250-750 J/KG -- AMIDST AROUND 50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   FOR INTENSE/ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. A FEW SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES MAY EVOLVE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL...AND SMALL ELEVATED BOWING SEGMENTS COULD FORM AS A RESULT OF
   LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE INTERACTIONS/AMALGAMATIONS WITH SPORADIC STRONG
   WIND GUSTS /PARTICULARLY NEAR AND S OF THE RED RIVER/. THE
   OPPORTUNITY FOR DOWNDRAFTS TO PENETRATE A NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER WILL
   TEND TO BE RESTRICTED BY NOCTURNAL DIABATIC SFC COOLING...AND
   N-OF-BOUNDARY COLD ADVECTION...THUS MITIGATING THE SVR-WIND
   POTENTIAL.

   ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY...AND THE ASSOCIATED ISOLATED SVR
   POTENTIAL...WILL SPREAD EWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SHOULD BE
   WEAKENING LATER IN THE NIGHT AS IT APPROACHES THE INTERSTATE-35
   CORRIDOR AND ENCOUNTERS GROWING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE OVERALL
   PAUCITY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND RELATED LIMITED BUOYANCY...ARE
   PRESENTLY EXPECTED TO KEEP THE SVR RISK SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED TO
   PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 03/27/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   33869944 34010033 34340071 34870015 35049967 35149851
               35009762 34549737 34069750 33779790 33869944 

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