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Mesoscale Discussion 277
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0277
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0136 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NRN NC...SRN/ERN VA...SERN MD...SRN DE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 101836Z - 101930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 20Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.

   DISCUSSION...EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT/STRATUS DECK IS ADVANCING NWD
   ACROSS VA/SERN MD WITH SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING NOTED
   ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN VA/NC.  SFC TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO
   THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SUNNIER REGIONS AND SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES HAVE
   STEEPENED TO 7-8 C/KM.  OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS WHAT APPEARS TO BE
   A WEAK MCV ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER NEAR PATRICK COUNTY.  CONVECTIVE
   DEBRIS HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT RECENTLY SFC-BASED
   CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN
   INTENSITY AND SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD WITHIN A FAVORABLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS.  WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT
   PARTICULARLY STRONG SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT...THERE
   IS CONCERN A FEW TORNADOES COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
   FRONT.  ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD TOWARD TIDEWATER REGION OF SRN MD.

   ..DARROW/GRAMS.. 04/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36988015 38467699 38557513 36707569 36227956 36988015 

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