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Mesoscale Discussion 277
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0277
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN IL...IND...WRN KY AND TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 271923Z - 272130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY TO
   DEVELOP NEAR THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS MAY
   ALSO MATERIALIZE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS RAPIDLY ADVANCING NWD ACROSS THE
   REGION WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S F AS FAR N AS SWRN OH AND
   CNTRL INDIANA. DEWPOINTS FURTHER RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S F FROM WRN
   TN INTO NRN MS. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG
   MLCAPE.

   AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE...AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES
   NEAR THE COLD FRONT...THE CAPPING INVERSION JUST BELOW 700 MB WILL
   BE BREACHED...ALLOWING SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS TO
   FORM. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE QUITE COOL WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES
   AROUND -20 C. THIS...COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
   GENERALLY LONG STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR CELLULAR
   ACTIVITY...PERHAPS WITH A FEW SPLITS. LARGE HAIL IS A DISTINCT
   THREAT...AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANY
   TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF/WEAK GIVEN A DECIDED LACK OF
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...A FEW
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

   ..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 03/27/2016


   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...
   MEG...LSX...

   LAT...LON   35798746 35818900 36318942 37298936 38878856 40668763
               41418653 41698497 41568428 40798407 38938456 36938582
               35798746 

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Page last modified: March 27, 2016
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