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Mesoscale Discussion 277
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0277
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0139 AM CDT FRI APR 04 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OHIO...SOUTHEAST
   INDIANA...CENTRAL KENTUCKY...MIDDLE TENNESSEE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 040639Z - 040915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AREAS E/NE OF TORNADO WATCH 55 ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN
   INCREASING SVR TSTM POTENTIAL...WHICH COULD WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF
   A TORNADO WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM SRN INDIANA TO NWRN TN
   WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD AND PERHAPS DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS. WATER VAPOR DATA IMPLY THAT POTENTIAL VORTICITY
   MAXIMA LIE WELL UPSTREAM -- EXTENDING FROM IA TO ERN OK.
   MEANWHILE...OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT SFC THETA-E IS NOT
   PARTICULARLY HIGH...ESPECIALLY N OF A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   DRAPED WNW/ESE ACROSS CNTRL KY THAT WAS DEPOSITED BY EARLIER
   CONVECTION DURING THE PAST DAY AND IS BEING REINFORCED BY ONGOING
   ELEVATED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENTIAL
   VORTICITY MAXIMA ASSUME A NEGATIVE TILT WHILE APPROACHING THE
   ONGOING CONVECTION...AND A VWP-IMPLIED 40-60-KT LLJ SUPPORTS STRONG
   POLEWARD MASS FLUXES...THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR MARGINAL
   DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE ONGOING SQUALL LINE --
   ESPECIALLY S OF THE LEXINGTON-LOUISVILLE CORRIDOR. AND...WITH THE
   INCREASE IN DEEP ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL
   FLOW...CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY AS IT SPREADS E/NE. CONVECTIVE
   MOMENTUM TRANSPORT COULD FOSTER A DMGG WIND POTENTIAL WITH BOWING
   SEGMENTS...WHILE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY BREED SOME POTENTIAL FOR
   LINE-EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES WITH TORNADOES. THE LACK OF STRONGER
   INSTABILITY...HOWEVER...MAY LIMIT SUCH POTENTIAL.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   35918825 36648741 38088683 38868641 39538531 39838408
               39488347 38408386 37048501 35848658 35918825 

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Page last modified: April 04, 2014
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