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Mesoscale Discussion 278
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0278
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF COASTAL GA/SC AND NERN FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 271952Z - 272145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SMALL HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE
   IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...A COMPOSITE FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PRIOR
   CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM NRN FL INTO COASTAL GA/SC PER 19Z SFC
   OBSERVATIONS. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS
   ACROSS PARTS OF SRN GA ALONG AND TO THE N OF THIS BOUNDARY AS
   LARGE-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET GLANCES THIS REGION.
   RECENT RADAR LOOPS SHOW CELLULAR CONVECTION ACROSS WAYNE COUNTY
   GA...WHICH HAS RECENTLY ACQUIRED WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL ROTATION AS
   IT MOVES NEWD. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS LIMITING DESTABILIZATION
   AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MUCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG PER RAP
   MESOANALYSIS SEEMS REASONABLE ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY.
   ADDITIONAL CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE S OF THE BOUNDARY
   INTO NERN FL WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AND
   INSTABILITY IS A BIT STRONGER /MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG/. A
   VEERING/STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT COMBINED WITH THIS
   INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW ONGOING/ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO POSE MAINLY A
   STRONG/GUSTY WIND THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

   ..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 03/27/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...JAX...

   LAT...LON   30948131 30418129 29468101 29198124 29128162 29288235
               29708245 31208239 31608205 32318112 32308085 32128059
               32018074 31328119 30948131 

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Page last modified: March 27, 2016
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