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Mesoscale Discussion 279
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0279
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0515 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY...SRN/ERN IND...WRN OH...SE MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 56...

   VALID 272215Z - 280015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 56
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS PROBABLY WILL INCREASE FURTHER
   ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN INDIANA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN AREAS NORTH/SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATCH WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE
   WEATHER POTENTIAL WHICH COULD REQUIRE A WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL
   UNDERWAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL APPEARS A BIT MARGINAL FOR SEVERE
   STORMS...BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SUFFICIENTLY STEEP TO ALLOW
   FOR WEAK TO MODEST MIXED LAYER CAPE.  TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS
   IN THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OUTSIDE/AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY ARE ON THE ORDER OF 20+ DEG F...WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
   CONDITIONS FAVORABLE TO STRONG SURFACE GUSTS...PARTICULARLY IF/WHEN
   CONVECTION BEGINS TO CONSOLIDATE.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 40-50 KT
   SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW IS ALREADY MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
   ORGANIZED CONVECTION...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.  HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
   LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK.

   GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
   SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET /30-40 KT/ BY THIS EVENING...AND PARTICULARLY
   TOWARD THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME...AS THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
   TAKES ON A BIT MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT.  HOWEVER...BY THAT
   TIME...STRONG SURFACE GUST POTENTIAL COULD BECOME OFFSET BY
   RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING AND STABILIZING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

   IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL COULD MAXIMIZE
   ACROSS INDIANA...WEST THROUGH NORTH OF LOUISVILLE KY THROUGH AREAS
   SOUTH/EAST OF INDIANAPOLIS DURING THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME...WITH
   DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT.  UNTIL THEN...MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
   STRONGEST STORMS...INCLUDING AREAS WITHIN THE WATCH...AS WELL AS TO
   THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE WATCH.

   ..KERR.. 03/27/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...
   ILX...

   LAT...LON   40718272 40408335 39738391 38858456 38208526 37428591
               36628687 36988822 38788783 39988679 40898562 41918417
               42128332 41578218 40718272 

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Page last modified: March 28, 2016
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