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Mesoscale Discussion 279
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0279
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0338 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN LA...SE MS...SRN/W-CNTRL AL...SW/W-CNTRL
   GA...WRN FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 102038Z - 102215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...MULTICELL CLUSTERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE
   EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE LACK OF STORM
   ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW BUT SOME HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.

   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF TSTMS
   ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NW GA SWWD INTO FAR
   NE LA. THUS FAR...STORMS HAVE BEEN LARGELY UNORGANIZED...LIKELY A
   RESULT OF WEAK FORCING...ONLY MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND GENERALLY
   MODEST BULK SHEAR. LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA
   REMAINS WEAK AS WELL. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SEWD WITH
   THE TREND OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECTED TO
   PERSIST. STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
   ARE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT OF STORM MERGERS AND MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS
   WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR THE COLD FRONT BUT WIDESPREAD STORM
   ORGANIZATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..MOSIER/GRAMS.. 04/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   29979030 30299079 31018923 31538806 32858621 33008517
               32678308 30838430 30298530 29979030 

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Page last modified: April 10, 2015
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