Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 280
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 280 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0280
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0311 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NE NM...SERN CO...SWRN KS...TX PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 112011Z - 112145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
   FROM SERN CO INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.  LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY
   THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE TX
   SOUTH PLAINS...NWD INTO EXTREME SERN CO.  BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
   DEEPENED ALONG WRN FRINGE OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND SFC-3KM
   LAPSE RATES ARE NOW APPROACHING DRY ADIABATIC ACROSS NERN NM/SERN
   CO.  AS A RESULT...HIGH-BASED CU FIELD IS EXPANDING ACROSS THIS
   REGION AND LIGHTNING IS NOW OBSERVED WITH A DEEPER UPDRAFT ALONG THE
   CO/NM/OK BORDER.  WHILE 19Z AMA SOUNDING SUGGESTED AIR MASS REMAINS
   CAPPED WITHIN RAIN-COOLED SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...CONVECTION MAY
   INITIATE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. 
   MULTIPLE HRRR RUNS HAVE SUGGESTED AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
   WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THIS. 
   FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS GREATER THAN 50/50 THAT A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE WARRANTED FOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL.

   ..DARROW/THOMPSON.. 04/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34210288 36960327 37610210 37200105 35820084 34240064
               34210288 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 11, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities