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Mesoscale Discussion 280
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0280
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0240 AM CDT FRI APR 04 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 040740Z - 040945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE DURING
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS...POTENTIALLY WARRANTING THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS E TX WHILE
   ENCOUNTERING MOISTER AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER -- E.G. SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY
   EARLIER 00Z RAOBS REMAIN IN PLACE SUPPORTING 1000-2000 J/KG OF
   MLCAPE. LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE ADEQUATE TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS
   OF INCREASING NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
   SFC-BASED CONVECTION. WITH 40-50 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW OFFERING
   STRONG DEEP SHEAR...ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CONVECTION MAY POSE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. DEEP FORCING FOR
   ASCENT...HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN LIMITED...AND THIS MAY LIMIT THE
   COVERAGE OF SVR STORMS.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29629776 30189707 31369567 31499452 31369379 29869385
               29299484 28849572 28809695 29629776 

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Page last modified: April 04, 2014
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