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Mesoscale Discussion 280
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0280
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0916 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...OHIO AND ADJACENT SE INDIANA/N CNTRL KENTUCKY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 56...57...

   VALID 280216Z - 280345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   56...57...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
   OHIO THROUGH 03-05Z.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
   OCCASIONAL/ISOLATED STRONG SURFACE GUSTS...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOWERING ENOUGH THAT ADDITIONAL WATCHES
   ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS PROCEEDS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
   LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...PARTICULARLY TOWARD AND AFTER
   06Z...CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW /AND
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/ APPEARS LIKELY WITHIN ITS WARM SECTOR...ACROSS THE
   UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  HOWEVER...TO THIS
   POINT... THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING
   ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL/EASTERN OHIO...AHEAD OF THE
   LINE OF STORMS NOW BEGINNING TO PROGRESS EAST OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCHES 56 AND 57.  SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE GENERALLY HELD IN THE
   UPPER 40S THROUGH LOWER 50S...AS TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE
   60S WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  THIS STABILIZATION OF
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS SEEMS
   LIKELY TO AT LEAST SUPPRESS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS
   WITH LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING.

   RADAR DATA OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO HAS SUGGESTED THAT PEAK
   CONVECTIVE INTENSITIES ARE IN DECLINE...AND THERE APPEARS LITTLE
   SUPPORT FOR SUBSTANTIVE RE-INTENSIFICATION THIS EVENING. 
   HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF
   AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE COULD MAINTAIN
   CONVECTION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF OHIO THROUGH
   THE 03-05Z TIME FRAME.  AS LONG AS EMBEDDED VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS
   PERSIST...IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT PRECIPITATION
   LOADING AND DOWNWARD MIXING OF MOMENTUM COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
   SUPPORT OCCASIONAL/ISOLATED STRONG SURFACE GUSTS AT LEAST
   APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS.

   ..KERR.. 03/28/2016


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...

   LAT...LON   41938236 42328020 40308163 38838280 38598405 39098488
               39738462 40528409 41938236 

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Page last modified: March 28, 2016
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