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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0281
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0703 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SE AL...N-CNTRL FL PANHANDLE...SW GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 190003Z - 190200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LINE OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN AL AND
WRN GA...EVENTUALLY REACHING SE AL...N-CNTRL FL PANHANDLE AND SW GA.
RADAR TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE BUT WANING
INSTABILITY AND WEAK UPPER FORCING PRECLUDE HIGHER WATCH
PROBABILITY.
DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG/SVR TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SEWD
ACROSS SRN AL/WRN GA INTO SE AL...N-CNTRL FL PANHANDLE AND SW GA.
RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A NOTABLE DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE
PAST HOUR AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND THE STORMS BECOME
INCREASINGLY DISSOCIATED FROM THE UPPER FORCING. RECENT MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS SOME MLCAPE REMAINS AHEAD OF THE LINE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SRN AL...SWRN GA...AND THE WRN/CNTRL FL PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS INTRODUCED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. SHEAR REMAINS STRONG /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND
50 KT/...WHICH WILL LIKELY AID IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A FEW STRONG
STORMS AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THE MD AREA. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SVR
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS DIMINISHING TREND...PRECLUDING
HIGH WATCH ISSUANCE PROBABILITY.
..MOSIER/DIAL.. 03/19/2013
ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 31588630 31778562 32148404 32008333 31748278 31308280
30788294 30568331 30258449 30378586 30568632 30858662
31288661 31588630
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