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Mesoscale Discussion 281
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0281
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1217 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 291717Z - 291945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA.

   DISCUSSION...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
   MEXICO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE A STEADY EASTWARD
   PROGRESSION TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH A PRECEDING WELL-ORGANIZED LINEAR CLUSTER EXPECTED
   TO CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PENINSULA. INCREASING
   FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS...ALONG WITH
   CLUSTER-RELATED-COLD POOL UPLIFT AS IT NEARS THE COAST...WILL
   SUPPORT MULTIPLE CORRIDORS OF INCREASINGLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA.
   ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK...RELATIVELY STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE BUOYANCY...AS SAMPLED BY 12Z
   OBSERVED SOUNDINGS...IN THE PRESENCE OF INCREASINGLY STRONG
   /SUPERCELL-ADEQUATE/ SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
   INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

   ..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 03/29/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

   LAT...LON   27618297 27698156 27298027 25228022 25328115 26528229
               27618297 

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Page last modified: March 29, 2016
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