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Mesoscale Discussion 281
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0281
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0631 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...OK PANHANDLE...FAR SE CO...SW KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55...

   VALID 112331Z - 120100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TX
   PANHANDLE AND IN SW KS. A TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH
   THE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...THE THREAT
   SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE APPEARS
   UNLIKELY...STORMS SHOULD APPROACH THE ERN EDGE OF THE WATCH AND
   LOCAL WW EXTENSIONS MAY BE NECESSARY.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH OVER ERN CO
   AND ERN NM WITH A DRYLINE LOCATED ACROSS WEST TX. TO THE EAST OF THE
   DRYLINE...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S F WITH A SEVERE
   STORM NORTH OF AMARILLO. ACCORDING TO MESOANALYSIS...THESE STORMS
   ARE BEING FUELED BY MLCAPE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND 850 TO 500
   MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM RANGE. IN ADDITION...500 MB
   TEMPS AROUND -15C AND 60 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE AMARILLO
   WSR-88D VWP WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
   HAIL. THE AMA VWP ALSO SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE
   LOWEST 2 KM WHICH IS CREATING 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT. THIS
   SHOULD ALSO BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT OVER THE NEXT
   HOUR OR TWO. AS THE CELLS MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED
   WITH RAPID WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 04/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...

   LAT...LON   34690142 35000204 35710209 37320222 37830223 38150160
               38000064 37470033 36310033 35080039 34690142 

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Page last modified: April 12, 2015
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