MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0281
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0703 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE AL...N-CNTRL FL PANHANDLE...SW GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 190003Z - 190200Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...LINE OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN AL AND
   WRN GA...EVENTUALLY REACHING SE AL...N-CNTRL FL PANHANDLE AND SW GA.
   RADAR TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE BUT WANING
   INSTABILITY AND WEAK UPPER FORCING PRECLUDE HIGHER WATCH
   PROBABILITY.
   
   DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG/SVR TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SEWD
   ACROSS SRN AL/WRN GA INTO SE AL...N-CNTRL FL PANHANDLE AND SW GA.
   RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A NOTABLE DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE
   PAST HOUR AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND THE STORMS BECOME
   INCREASINGLY DISSOCIATED FROM THE UPPER FORCING. RECENT MESOANALYSIS
   SHOWS SOME MLCAPE REMAINS AHEAD OF THE LINE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
   SRN AL...SWRN GA...AND THE WRN/CNTRL FL PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...THE
   LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS INTRODUCED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE AREA. SHEAR REMAINS STRONG /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND
   50 KT/...WHICH WILL LIKELY AID IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A FEW STRONG
   STORMS AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THE MD AREA. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SVR
   THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS DIMINISHING TREND...PRECLUDING
   HIGH WATCH ISSUANCE PROBABILITY.
   
   ..MOSIER/DIAL.. 03/19/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   LAT...LON   31588630 31778562 32148404 32008333 31748278 31308280
               30788294 30568331 30258449 30378586 30568632 30858662
               31288661 31588630