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Mesoscale Discussion 282
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0282
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0819 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SW KS...NW OK...ERN TX PANHANDLE...WEST TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55...

   VALID 120119Z - 120215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IN SW KS AND THE ERN TX
   PANHANDLE MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. LARGE HAIL...WIND
   DAMAGE AND A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT PERSIST.
   WFO DODGE CITY HAS EXTENDED THE WATCH TO HANDLE THE EVENING SEVERE
   THREAT ACROSS SW KS.

   DISCUSSION...TWO AREAS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING...THE
   FIRST IN SW KS AND THE SECOND IS IN THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS
   ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF A CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY
   WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. THE CELLS
   WILL BE MOVING EWD AWAY FROM THE STRONGER INSTABILITY THIS EVENING.
   AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS NW OK AND SW KS...THE STORM
   IN SOUTHWEST KS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE TO PERSIST. DUE TO
   STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUPERCELLS THAT CAN
   CONTINUE WILL HAVE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. SHORT-TERM
   MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT CELL COVERAGE ACROSS SW KS COULD
   INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. 

   FURTHER SOUTH...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF
   LUBBOCK NEAR A MAX IN INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED AT JUST
   ABOVE 2000 J/KG. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
   THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 04/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   37300166 35730143 34150138 33540135 33620073 34520012
               35469977 35879950 37049838 37659843 38039885 38079963
               38040043 37950115 37300166 

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Page last modified: April 12, 2015
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