MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0282
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SW MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 190100Z - 190230Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL PERSIST
   THROUGH ABOUT 02Z...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK SHOULD DIMINISH BY
   03Z.  THUS...A NEW WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS CONTINUE ALONG AN E-W OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IN MS.  THE STORMS ARE BEING FED BY
   MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE SW...WITH MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG AND
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT.  HOWEVER...THE CAP IS RELATIVELY
   STRONG A LITTLE FARTHER TO S /PER OOZ SOUNDINGS FROM LCH AND
   LIX/...AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO INCREASE THIS EVENING
   WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  THUS...WITH NO APPRECIABLE
   LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT...CONVECTION WILL RELY ON SHALLOW
   LIFT OVER THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
   SEEMS UNLIKELY AS THE CAP INCREASES.  THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THREAT
   MAY SPREAD A TIER OF COUNTIES S OF THE REMAINING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH IN SW MS...BUT A NEW WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 03/19/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
   
   LAT...LON   31499049 31558988 31558930 31428900 31108925 31008977
               31019058 31029111 31099152 31299167 31459165 31519113
               31499049