Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 282
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 282 graphic
   
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0282
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SW MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 190100Z - 190230Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL PERSIST
   THROUGH ABOUT 02Z...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK SHOULD DIMINISH BY
   03Z.  THUS...A NEW WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS CONTINUE ALONG AN E-W OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IN MS.  THE STORMS ARE BEING FED BY
   MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE SW...WITH MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG AND
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT.  HOWEVER...THE CAP IS RELATIVELY
   STRONG A LITTLE FARTHER TO S /PER OOZ SOUNDINGS FROM LCH AND
   LIX/...AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO INCREASE THIS EVENING
   WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  THUS...WITH NO APPRECIABLE
   LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT...CONVECTION WILL RELY ON SHALLOW
   LIFT OVER THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
   SEEMS UNLIKELY AS THE CAP INCREASES.  THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THREAT
   MAY SPREAD A TIER OF COUNTIES S OF THE REMAINING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH IN SW MS...BUT A NEW WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 03/19/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
   
   LAT...LON   31499049 31558988 31558930 31428900 31108925 31008977
               31019058 31029111 31099152 31299167 31459165 31519113
               31499049 
   
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: March 19, 2013
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities