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Mesoscale Discussion 283
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0283
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0503 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...NW TX...WRN OK...SRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 122203Z - 122300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE
   ERN TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO SRN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE
   HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE WILL
   LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION SOON.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1004 MB LOW NEAR DODGE
   CITY KS WITH A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS WRN KS. WINDS ARE
   SLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS WITH A THERMAL AXIS FROM NEAR
   CHILDRESS TX NWD TO AROUND GAGE OK. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECAST
   SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...RESULTING IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. THE LATEST
   MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO
   STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF WRN OK AND SRN KS. THIS
   ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
   STORMS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE MAY DEVELOP INTO HAIL PRODUCING
   SUPERCELLS. AS CELLS CONGEAL...LINEAR ORGANIZATION COULD ALSO TAKE
   PLACE RESULTING IN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS WELL.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 04/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35000060 34510045 34209979 34279888 34719816 36019773
               37179727 38029763 38209837 37819913 37179968 36240041
               35000060 

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Page last modified: April 12, 2015
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