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Mesoscale Discussion 283
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0283
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1157 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN OK...NERN TX...WRN AND CNTRL ARKANSAS
   AND WRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 301657Z - 301800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
   ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL AND POSSIBLY
   ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A WW WILL
   PROBABLY NOT BE REQUIRED FOR THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY.

   DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED FROM NERN
   TX THROUGH CNTRL/ERN OK INTO ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING
   IN RESPONSE TO AN EWD PROPAGATING GRAVITY WAVE AND WITHIN A MORE
   GENERAL AREA OF WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM FROM A SUBTLE BUT
   PROGRESSIVE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH OK/NCNTRL
   TX. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION SO
   FAR...BUT 12Z RAOBS SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 03/30/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   32649516 33619617 34849724 36409627 36829423 37479124
               34309289 33109398 32649516 

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Page last modified: March 30, 2016
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