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Mesoscale Discussion 285
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0285
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0504 AM CDT FRI APR 04 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN MS AND SRN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 041004Z - 041200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
   SRN PARTS OF LA AND MS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WILL
   WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM CNTRL MS TO ERN
   TX WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE MORNING GIVEN 40-50 KT OF MID-LEVEL
   FLOW SAMPLED BY UPSTREAM POE/LCH VWPS. MODERATE INSTABILITY RESIDES
   DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CONVECTION...GIVEN RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE --
   E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S -- BENEATH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES
   AROUND 7-8 C/KM. DESPITE NOCTURNALLY SUPPORTED CINH...ASCENT ON THE
   LEADING EDGES OF COLD POOLS WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN SFC-BASED CONVECTION
   WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   30679244 31739100 32148956 32028859 30958926 30089037
               29589174 29769257 30679244 

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Page last modified: April 04, 2014
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