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Mesoscale Discussion 285
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0285
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0542 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NEB...NRN KS...FAR SE SD...FAR NW IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 122242Z - 122345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM FAR
   SE SD SSWWD ACROSS MUCH ERN NEB INTO NRN KS. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND
   DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED
   OUT EARLY THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD
   ACROSS FAR SE SD AND CNTRL NEB WITH A MOIST AXIS LOCATED FROM SE KS
   NEWD INTO SERN NEB. SFC DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 F ALONG THIS
   CORRIDOR WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE.
   SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE STORM COVERAGE EARLY THIS
   EVENING AS  LINE OF STORMS ORGANIZES ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS ERN NEB
   AND NRN KS. IN ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP AT HASTINGS NEB SHOWS 0-6
   KM SHEAR NEAR 30 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   MAY BE ENOUGH FOR BRIEFLY ROTATING CELLS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. AS
   THE STORMS LINE UP ALONG THE FRONT...THE PREDOMINANT THREAT COULD
   TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
   THE MID EVENING AS A LINE MOVES EWD TOWARD THE MO RIVER. THE
   COMBINATION OF VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND
   MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED
   ACROSS THE REGION.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 04/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   41049961 40540008 40020008 39469979 38759925 38519847
               38629789 38949704 39669663 40179620 40829602 41629632
               42119613 42669595 42989638 42979735 42159863 41049961 

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Page last modified: April 12, 2015
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