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Mesoscale Discussion 285
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0285
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0142 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MO AND WRL/CNTRL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 301842Z - 302045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON WITH ONGOING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE MARGINAL
   NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...WITHIN SWLY FLOW ALOFT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
   OCCASIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN MO/WRN IL AS
   OF 1840Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ABOVE A STABLE LOW-LEVEL
   AIRMASS...WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0-8.0 DEG C/KM
   SUPPORTING WEAK TO MODERATE MUCAPE. GIVEN A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
   FIELD WITHIN THE UNSTABLE LAYER ALOFT THAT IS ALSO STRENGTHENING
   WITH HEIGHT...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN
   SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE MCD AREA. AS
   THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NEWD INTO CNTRL IL...THEY SHOULD ENCOUNTER
   INCREASINGLY MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH A LESSENING SEVERE
   RISK.

   ..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 03/30/2016


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   38139245 38909200 39599113 40128991 40118942 39828854
               39368828 38308923 37639046 37669217 38139245 

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Page last modified: March 30, 2016
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