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Mesoscale Discussion 286
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0286
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0157 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN N TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 301857Z - 302000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION IS INCREASING...WITH
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. WW ISSUANCE LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INITIATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   WRN N TX AHEAD OF A SFC DRYLINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE
   MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS IN GENERALLY IN
   THE MID TO UPPER 60S. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH THIS
   MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG MLCAPE OF
   2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS THE MCD AREA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
   SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EWD TOWARDS THE
   METROPLEX THIS EVENING...POSING MAINLY A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
   RISK GIVEN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE LIKELY. THE TORNADO RISK SHOULD
   BE RELATIVELY LIMITED WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW PER KDYX VWP AND
   18Z KFWD SOUNDING.

   ..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 03/30/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31920071 33269967 33409789 33809784 33689716 33739669
               33659654 33119643 32329670 31569724 31319884 31440036
               31920071 

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Page last modified: March 30, 2016
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