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Mesoscale Discussion 287
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0287
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0823 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...WRN OK...SCNTRL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 56...

   VALID 130123Z - 130300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 56
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS WW 56
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
   EVENING BUT WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE CURRENT
   WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE STORMS IS ONGOING FROM JUST
   WEST OF WICHITA SSWWD TO NEAR CHILDRESS TX. THIS LINE IS LOCATED
   JUST TO THE WEST OF A MAXIMUM IN INSTABILITY WITH MESOANALYSIS
   ESTIMATING MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS WRN OK AND
   SCNTRL KS. IN ADDITION...THE LAMONT OK 23Z SOUNDING SHOWS 35 KT OF
   0-6 KM SHEAR WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 C/KM. THIS ALONG
   WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF -13C WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE
   MORE INTENSE CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. SHORT-TERM MODELS GRADUALLY
   MOVE THE LINE EWD ACROSS WRN OK AND SCNTRL KS THIS EVENING WHERE A
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD INCREASE
   AS CELLS BEGIN TO BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT LATER THIS EVENING.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 04/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   38649675 37969630 35989713 33849886 33239977 33330065
               34000098 34590057 35959942 37179857 38209818 38579796
               38809746 38649675 

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Page last modified: April 13, 2015
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