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Mesoscale Discussion 287
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0287
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0207 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX THROUGH EXTREME SERN OK...NWRN ARKANSAS AND
   NWRN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 301907Z - 302030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES IS
   EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM NERN TX...NWRN
   LA...SWRN ARKANSAS INTO EXTREME SERN OK. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
   SOON.

   DISCUSSION...ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE IN WARM
   SECTOR GENERALLY SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SERN LA
   THROUGH NRN LA INTO NERN TX. NEAR-SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F BENEATH
   STEEP /7-7.5 C/KM/ MID LEVEL LAPSE RATS ARE SUPPORTING AROUND 1000
   J/KG MLCAPE...AND UPDRAFTS ARE FINALLY BECOMING ROOTED NEAR THE SFC
   BASED ON LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS WITH INITIAL SUPERCELL LOCATED
   OVER NERN TX.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND 0-1 KM HODOGRAPH SIZES ARE
   MAXIMIZED WHERE A SSWLY LLJ INTERSECTS THE CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED
   FRONT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WAS SAMPLED BY THE 18Z SHREVEPORT RAOB.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 03/30/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33899488 34099369 33299269 31849276 31849456 32399540
               33899488 

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Page last modified: March 30, 2016
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