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Mesoscale Discussion 288
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0288
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0612 AM CDT FRI APR 04 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 041112Z - 041345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL MAY
   PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...THOUGH THE ISSUANCE OF AN
   ADDITIONAL WW IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY IMPLIES THAT UPPER VENTILATION
   AND DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A HIGH-LEVEL
   JET STREAK ARE OVERSPREADING S TX. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS INDICATE
   THAT THIS IS ENCOURAGING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED ELEVATED
   THUNDERSTORMS ROOTED ATOP A NWD-SLOPING COLD FRONTAL SURFACE. WITH
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING AN EML SUPPORTING 1000-2000
   J/KG OF MUCAPE AMIDST 45-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...SVR HAIL
   WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON AN ISOLATED BASIS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
   HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK OWING TO
   WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE A GREATER-COVERAGE SVR
   POTENTIAL FROM EVOLVING...WHILE AN UNDERCUTTING SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY
   ERODES ELEVATED BUOYANCY FROM N TO S. AS SUCH...WHILE WW 57 WAS
   EARLIER EXTENDED UNTIL 7 AM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WFO CORPUS
   CHRISTI COUNTY WARNING AREA...AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE
   REQUIRED.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

   LAT...LON   28200013 28759923 28719753 27879718 26099712 25909749
               26069849 26549916 28200013 

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Page last modified: April 04, 2014
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