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Mesoscale Discussion 288
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0288
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0859 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 57...

   VALID 130159Z - 130330Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 57
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS CONTINUES...PRIMARILY
   ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW 57.

   DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD
   ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND FAR SOUTH TX. SFC OBSERVATIONS AND
   RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND WITH THE SQUALL LINE
   OVER THE HILL COUNTRY...AS REPORTED GUSTS HAVE PRIMARILY BEEN BELOW
   SEVERE LIMITS. FURTHERMORE...CAPPI DATA DISPLAY A SLOW DIMINISHING
   TREND IN REFLECTIVITY CORES ALOFT ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE LINE.
   THIS TREND IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF INCREASING CINH BROUGHT FORTH BY
   THE LOSS OF INSOLATION AND A LEADING STRATIFORM REGION. IN
   TURN...LOW-LEVEL STABILITY HAS INCREASED AHEAD OF THE LINE IN
   NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH.

   FARTHER SOUTH...SFC TEMPS REMAIN A FEW DEGREES WARMER /RELATIVE TO
   NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH/...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. AS
   SUCH...GREATER POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG WINDS BEING REALIZED AT
   THE SFC...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE. ADDITIONALLY...KCRP
   DATA SUGGEST A MESOVORTEX HAS DEVELOPED IN THE LINE NEAR
   LAREDO...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER PROMOTE A DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. AS
   THE STORMS PUSH FARTHER EAST THOUGH...INCREASING CINH SHOULD LEAD TO
   A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED TO ACCOUNT FOR A POTENTIAL LOCAL EXTENSION EWD IF
   NECESSARY.

   ..PICCA.. 04/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...

   LAT...LON   26259856 26399906 27819983 29780033 30670023 30859985
               30749949 29309864 28019822 26749813 26259856 

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Page last modified: April 13, 2015
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