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Mesoscale Discussion 288
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0288
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0256 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN KS...SERN NEB...NWRN/WRN MO...AND
   SWRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 301956Z - 302200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM. WW
   ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...19Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 998 MB SFC LOW OVER ERN
   NEB...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CNTRL/ERN
   KS. A THERMAL GRADIENT/WEAK WARM FRONT STRUCTURE EXTENDS EWD FROM
   THE SFC LOW ACROSS CNTRL IA. MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE MCD AREA HAS
   BEEN MORE LIMITED COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FURTHER S...WITH DEWPOINTS
   GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
   SOME AGITATED CUMULUS ACROSS NERN KS AND SERN NEB AS OF 1945Z
   ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DISPLACED
   WELL TO THE W OF THE SFC LOW...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN
   WEAK/NEBULOUS...LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF
   CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN INITIATE ALONG THE COLD
   FRONT...THEY COULD POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS GIVEN MLCAPE GENERALLY AROUND 500-1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR OF 40-50 KT. 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM KTOP AND KOAX REVEAL
   VEERED/MODEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS...SUGGESTING THE TORNADO THREAT IS LOW
   AT THIS TIME.

   ..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 03/30/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   38159585 38529628 38659650 39919594 41469614 41659535
               41659449 41069410 40049390 38209423 38089507 38159585 

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Page last modified: March 30, 2016
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