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Mesoscale Discussion 289
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0289
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0353 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 302053Z - 302230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NWD THROUGH CNTRL LA MIGHT UNDERGO
   FURTHER INTENSIFICATION/ORGANIZATION AND POSE AT LEAST A MODEST
   TORNADO THREAT. WW 60 IN SHREVEPORT CWA CAN BE LOCALLY EXTENDED SWD
   IF NEEDED TO COVER THE POTENTIAL THREAT. DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS...AN ALTERNATIVE WOULD BE ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE FOR THE NRN
   PORTION OF LAKE CHARLES CWA WHICH WOULD ALSO INCLUDE THE SRN PORTION
   OF SHREVEPORT CWA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN A WW ISSUANCE FOR THIS
   AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS
   TIME.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN MOIST PRE-FRONTAL WARM
   SECTOR WITHIN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE. HOWEVER...THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN SLOW TO DESTABILIZE DUE TO CLOUDS. TENDENCY
   WILL BE FOR THE LLJ AND MID-LEVEL WINDS TO STRENGTHEN WITH THE
   APPROACH OF A PROGRESSIVE SUBTROPICAL UPPER JET. A FEW STORMS HAVE
   ALREADY EXHIBITED TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND SOME SEVERE
   THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING IN THIS
   REGION. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A MODEST INVERSION PERSISTING.
   WITH DEEPER FORCING REMAINING NORTH OF THIS REGION IN ADDITION TO
   ONLY MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN
   WHETHER OR NOT A WW WILL BE NEEDED.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 03/30/2016


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   31829298 31849208 31249170 30759136 30479228 30609312
               31259340 31829298 

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Page last modified: March 30, 2016
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