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Mesoscale Discussion 289
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0289
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0700 AM CDT FRI APR 04 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN TN...SWRN NC...NRN GA...CNTRL/ERN
   AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 041200Z - 041330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT E OF
   WW 59/61...THOUGH DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...AS INFLOW FOR AN MCS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE ERN
   EXTENT OF WW 59/61 BECOMES INCREASINGLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE...THIS
   PORTION OF THE MCS WILL LIKELY DECAY. GPS DATA INDICATE A SHARP
   DROP-OFF IN PW DOWNSHEAR OF THE MCS TOWARD THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS...SUGGESTING THAT THE MCS IS OUTPACING THE RICHER
   MOISTURE. THIS WILL BE DELETERIOUS FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF SUSTAINED
   STRONG UPDRAFTS. NEVERTHELESS...CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT COULD
   SUPPORT A DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO GIVEN 30-40 KT OF 1-KM-AGL FLOW PER
   AREA VWP DATA...PROVIDED THE ESTABLISHED COLD POOL.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   32668696 34178583 35468455 36538269 35688283 33248517
               32468624 32668696 

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