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Mesoscale Discussion 289
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0289
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0759 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AND SERN LA / SERN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 131259Z - 131500Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY ACQUIRE LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AS THE AIRMASS
   DESTABILIZES THIS MORNING AND THE WIND PROFILE STRENGTHENS.  SOME
   TORNADO RISK MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT
   CIRCULATIONS.

   DISCUSSION...12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW 70S TEMPERATURES AND
   DEWPOINTS ACROSS SRN LA WITH ESELY FLOW.  TIME/HEIGHT TRENDS FROM
   KLIX AND KLCH SHOW A VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE IN THE
   LOWEST 4 KM AGL AHEAD OF A MCV OVER THE TX UPPER COASTAL PLAIN.  AS
   THIS CONVECTIVELY INDUCED FEATURE APPROACHES THE REGION...FURTHER
   ENLARGING OF THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH IS PROBABLE.  DESPITE
   WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED STORMS...A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
   HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION AND AT
   LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW MESOCYCLONE ROTATION.  IF STORMS
   CAN INTENSIFY THIS MORNING...AN ISOLD DMGG WIND RISK AND THE
   POSSIBILITY FOR A TORNADO MAY RESULT.

   ..SMITH/MEAD.. 04/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   30749350 30789160 30648911 30128881 29148907 28989067
               29549193 30749350 

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Page last modified: April 13, 2015
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