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Mesoscale Discussion 290
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0290
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0722 AM CDT FRI APR 04 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PARTS OF MS AND LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 60...62...

   VALID 041222Z - 041345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   60...62...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SVR POTENTIAL CONTINUES ACROSS REMAINING VALID
   PORTIONS OF WW 60/62.

   DISCUSSION...A CONTINUOUS SQUALL LINE FROM N OF LAKE CHARLES LA TO
   MERIDIAN MS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   THE 12Z RAOB AT LCH INDICATES AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH LITTLE
   CINH. HOWEVER...SFC OBSERVATIONS AND THE 12Z LIX RAOB INDICATE
   SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS FARTHER E. THERE MAY BE
   SOME TENDENCY FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
   DRIER AIR/STRONGER CAPPING SAMPLED BY THE LIX RAOB. HOWEVER...GIVEN
   LIFT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ESTABLISHED COLD POOL AND AROUND
   35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...SFC-BASED CONVECTION WITH DMGG WINDS
   WILL REMAIN OF CONCERN ALONG WITH SVR HAIL PROVIDED H7-H5 LAPSE
   RATES AROUND 7 C/KM. WEAKENING/VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW PER VWP DATA
   WILL LIMIT ANY TORNADO POTENTIAL.

   ..COHEN.. 04/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29859378 30359376 31019243 31939024 32118856 29878938
               29309084 29499293 29859378 

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Page last modified: April 04, 2014
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