MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0291
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0632 PM CDT FRI MAR 22 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 222332Z - 230130Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
   ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BEFORE SUNSET. IF A STORM FORMS...HAIL COULD
   OCCUR.
   
   DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SWD ACROSS CNTRL TX.
   STRONG HEATING HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S F S OF THE
   BOUNDARY...BUT DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S F. 
   
   VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
   FRONT...BUT CONVERGENCE IS VERY WEAK. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   FURTHER INDICATE A CAPPING INVERSION IS HAMPERING VERTICAL
   DEVELOPMENT.
   
   WEAK RADAR ECHOES WERE NOTED RECENTLY OVER KERR COUNTY...WHICH
   APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR A STORM. THE STEEP LAPSE
   RATE ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT
   CONDITIONALLY FAVOR LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...EVEN IF A STORM DOES
   FORM...THE THREAT AREA WOULD LIKELY REMAIN HIGHLY LOCALIZED...AND
   WATCH WOULD NOT BE ISSUED.
   
   ..JEWELL/KERR.. 03/22/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...
   
   LAT...LON   29549833 29609970 29779974 29949963 30059937 30159836
               30189795 30039788 29609788 29549833