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Mesoscale Discussion 291
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0291
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0506 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ARK-LA-TEX REGION

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 60...

   VALID 302206Z - 302330Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 60 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...PRIMARY NEAR-TERM TORNADO RISK IS WITH A SUPERCELL
   CENTERED ON TITUS COUNTY TX. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING WITH CONVECTION EMANATING OUT OF
   PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS IN E TX AND/OR UPSCALE GROWTH OF AN MCS
   NEAR/WEST OF THE METROPLEX.

   DISCUSSION...ROTATION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT WITH A SUPERCELL CENTERED
   ON TITUS COUNTY TX AS OF 22Z. THIS IS PROGRESSING INTO AN
   INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AS
   DOWNSTREAM VWP DATA FROM SHV SAMPLED 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT. WITH
   SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED THIS EVENING /MAINLY E OF
   THE SABINE RIVER/...THIS SUPERCELL MAY BECOME LONG-TRACKED WITH
   OCCASIONAL TORNADOES /ONE OR MORE OF WHICH MAY BE SIGNIFICANT/.
   WHETHER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CAN DEEPEN TO THE S OF WW 60 REMAINS
   UNCLEAR IN THE SHORT-TERM AMID RELATIVELY MODEST SURFACE HEATING AND
   WEAK CONVERGENCE. A MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO IS FOR AN MCS CURRENTLY
   FORMING NEAR/W OF THE METROPLEX TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE EWD TOWARD THE
   ARKLATEX LATER THIS EVENING.

   ..GRAMS.. 03/30/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32659556 33569472 34059386 34219324 34099262 33629232
               32839249 32189290 31979403 31999459 32219523 32659556 

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Page last modified: March 30, 2016
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