MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0292
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0816 PM CDT FRI MAR 22 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA...SRN AR...WRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 230116Z - 230315Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...MODEST WARM ADVECTION NEAR AND N OF A WARM FRONT SHOULD
   RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORMS THIS EVENING WITH A THREAT OF
   HAIL.
   
   DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW ECHOES INCREASING OVER NWRN
   LA NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM SHV AND LCH
   INDICATED AMPLE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...AS HODOGRAPHS REMAIN LONG. LARGE HAIL WILL
   BE A DISTINCT THREAT THIS EVENING.
   
   CURRENTLY...FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK...AND STORMS ARE RELATIVELY
   SLOW GROWING. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NWD
   INTO SRN AR...NWRN MS AND NERN LA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND
   SHOULD PROVIDE A BOOST FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THERE IS SOME
   CONCERN THE FORCING MAY EXIST TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE GREATER
   INSTABILITY FARTHER S. IF STORMS CAN INCREASE OVER SRN AREAS NEAR
   THE WARM FRONT...THEN A WATCH WOULD BE MORE LIKELY.
   
   ..JEWELL/KERR.. 03/23/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   33758955 33238916 32508936 31759012 31639073 31669122
               31829206 32519340 33189340 34059308 34359221 34249078
               33758955