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Mesoscale Discussion 292
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0292
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0355 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS DEEP S TX.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 132055Z - 132300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTMS WITH SVR HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR A
   FEW MORE HOURS OVER AREAS ALONG AND WITHIN ABOUT 70 NM E OF RIO
   GRANDE DOWNSTREAM FROM LRD.

   DISCUSSION...TSTM THAT DEVELOPED JUST W OF MEX BORDER HAS CROSSED
   RIO GRANDE INTO PORTIONS ZAPATA COUNTY AND INTENSIFIED TO LIKELY SVR
   LEVELS BASED ON ITS RADAR PRESENTATIONS.  ADDITIONAL/YOUNGER TSTM
   OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TO ITS SW...IN MEX...ALSO MAY INTENSIFY AND APCH
   BORDER DURING NEXT COUPLE HOURS. 

   DIABATIC HEATING AND MOIST/WARM ADVECTION EACH LIKELY HAVE
   CONTRIBUTED ENOUGH LOW-MIDDLE-LEVEL RECOVERY FROM OUTFLOW-RELATED
   STABILIZATION EVIDENT IN 12Z BRO/CRP RAOBS TO RECONFIGURE
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORABLY.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST SFC TEMPS LOW 80S F AND DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F
   CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG.  ALTHOUGH NEAR-SFC WINDS
   AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EACH ARE WEAK AND SHOULD REMAIN SO...DEEP SHEAR
   WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 50 KT. 
   MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL INVOLVE COVERAGE/LONGEVITY OF CONVECTION
   CONSIDERING CINH EVIDENT ACROSS THIS AREA.

   ..EDWARDS/GRAMS.. 04/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

   LAT...LON   26789850 26659881 26549916 26619918 26849926 26899938
               26969939 27019938 27069946 27139944 27279943 27359954
               27539944 27819855 27459817 26879818 26789850 

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Page last modified: April 13, 2015
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